Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Eduardo Serra Rexach
action plan for nuclear disarmament contained in a list to be progressively
implemented and the ultimate aim of which would be the adoption of a
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; until then a nuclear moratorium was
agreed on.
In contrast, the 7th Review Conference of 2005 ended in frustration and
scepticism and was considered a wasted opportunity owing chiefly to the
attitude of some states (mostly members of the Non-Aligned Movement),
which pursued an all or nothing policy. Nor did the nuclear-weapon states,
who believed that the previous conference had gone too far, collaborate in
bringing the meeting to a successful conclusion.
Such are the circumstances that make up the backdrop to the 2010
Review Conference. As stated, President Obama has managed to change
the expectations with the aforementioned declarations, instilling optimism
into the atmosphere surrounding the conference. This is not surprising
since the president’s intention of achieving «a world without nuclear
weapons» is, after all, the ultimate aim of the NPT. Indeed, America’s new
attitude has already borne its first fruit—the negotiation of a new START
Treaty aimed at a substantial reduction in nuclear arsenals.
President Obama’s initiative furthermore comes at a good time in
which the economic crisis is making it very difficult for Russia to bolster its
nuclear potential. And China (which recently upped its nuclear arsenal by
25%) has expressed its readiness to proceed to a substantial reduction.
In view of these factors, the author ends his paper by discussing the
prospects for the 2010 Review Conference, which he views as a unique
opportunity to debate on the establishment of a new world security order,
although he doubts it will possible for all the disarmament and non-proliferation
proposals raised by President Obama to materialise.
All in all, he believes that international consensus is needed concerning
the priorities already analysed at the 1995 and 2000 conferences, which
he sums up in the seven following points:
1. Definitive entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban
Treaty.
2. Negotiation of a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (under IAEA control).
3. Make the Additional Protocol of the IAEA the main instrument of
non-proliferation in order to prevent the diversion of nuclear materials
for civilian use to a military purpose.
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