Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Climate change and its security implications
nologies (which produce almost zero greenhouse gas and atmospheric
emissions, including construction, operation and dismantling) using wind,
water and solar radiation, according to which 100% of the world’s energy
needs could be supplied by 2030. Its feasibility depends not only on the
chosen technologies and availability of the necessary raw materials (which
could be a serious hindrance as some materials, such as neodymium,
tellurium, indium, silver, lithium and platinum, are scarce or not available in
the required amounts, or could be subject to price manipulation) but also
on economic and political factors.
As mentioned earlier, global warming will cause ice thaw in Greenland,
the Antarctic and the Arctic, leading to new tension over the exploitation
of energy resources. This tension will emerge after the thaw, especially in
the Arctic, and will particularly affect adjacent countries such as Canada,
the United States, Russia and Norway. The various claims to the Arctic
floor are based on the economic benefits derived from the opening of new
trade routes and the appropriation of possible natural reserves of gas and
petroleum.
The consequences of the rise in demand for these three basic resources
(water, food and energy) and for other raw materials will be felt more
intensely in areas under major demographic pressure, and in regions affected
by the political decisions of the countries that supply these resources.
Damage to infrastructure
The most vulnerable industries, human settlements and societies are
those located in areas affected by coastal and river floods, those whose
economies are closely related to climate-sensitive resources and those
located in areas prone to extreme weather phenomena, especially where
rapid land development takes place. It should be borne in mind that coastal
regions are already home to one-fifth of the world’s population, and
this figure is projected to increase. Examples of industrial facilities affected
by this situation are ports and oil refineries located next to the sea.
The deterioration in coastal conditions owing, for example, to the erosion
of beaches, is expected to affect local resources such as fisheries and
decrease the value of these tourist destinations. Furthermore, the increase
in extreme events will affect key socioeconomic sectors such as communications,
transport and energy supply.
Poor communities may be especially vulnerable, particularly those
concentrated in the aforementioned high-risk areas. They tend to have
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