Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Florentino Portero Rodríguez
The India-Pacific area is characterised by its heterogeneousness, lack
of cohesion and huge potentiality. This potentiality is evident from the
waves of democratisation the region has experienced. Insofar as these
age old cultures have realised the advisability of developing representative
regimes, establishing the rule of law and opening up their markets, economic
and social development has been obvious. This explains why since
the 1980s we have been hearing insistent talk of how the centre of the planet
would shift to this region, an idea that finds no opposition today. This
cultural and political variety is also going to characterise the future. The
challenges faced by some of these states, such as India and China, are
so huge that we should not rule out the possibility of major crises of social
or national cohesion that will determine their political future. Perhaps the
risks are greater in China owing to the havoc wrought by communism on
its culture and traditional values and the absence of legitimate representative
institutions to channel the inevitable tension caused by this deep and
fast transformation.
Since the end of the Cold War we have been witnessing a realignment
which was preceded by the thaw in relations between communist China
and the United States. Not only has communism in its different versions
failed as an alternative for development and security; so too has the Nonaligned
Movement also ceased to be a significant point of reference. The
acceptance and consequence success of the system of open economies
has become both a basis for regional development and an outstanding
nucleus of cohesion. Trade unites; it generates common interests and
shared visions. Never before has there been such interrelationship between
states and economies in this vast region. Relations are growing,
just as a certain regional identity is emerging. Seminars on security and
defence are increasing in number and interest; research institutions
with varying degrees of connection with governments are growing and
analyses of the region’s problems and how to address them are accordingly
becoming more sophisticated. The old regional organisations have
become outdated and are undergoing an overhaul or reform process that
is already underway. There is an overall awareness that this new stage
entails complex security challenges, the management of which requires
intense dialogue between the regional powers.
The first of these problems is nationalism in general and that of China
in particular. The India-Pacific area is home to extremely ancient cultures
which are the pride of their populations. There appears to be no intention
of banishing this sentiment; on the contrary, there is evidence of a certain
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