Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

THE AF PAK SCENARIO
Jo s é Ma r í a Ro b l e s Fr a g a
A CRITICAL AND DECISIVE MOMENT
The Afghanistan-Pakistan scenario is currently at a critical moment.
Added to the deterioration in the security situation and the spread
of attacks by the different insurgent groups is the disrepute of
President Karzai—re-elected in polls that should be considered a failed
exercise—together with widespread corruption and the political and
administrative incompetence of his government. The scrapped second
round of the polls marked by fraud in Karzai’s favour has also brought
to light the limits of America’s influence on a government we are obliged
to defend. Added to the pressing need to stem the advance of the
insurgency is the challenge of making possible the «Afghanisation» of
security in order to provide western troops with an exit strategy.
To quote General McChrystal in his report to the president, «the situation
in Afghanistan is serious, but success is achievable and demands a
revised implementation strategy, commitment and resolve, and increased
unity of effort».
The Afghan people’s disappointment, disillusionment and fear is an
explosive combination that must be taken into account when devising any
new approach. Nor should it be forgotten that this debate must necessarily
examine the possible alternatives and most likely post-2010 scenarios and
include in this outlook the regional scenario, particularly developments in
Pakistan, which are a key element.
It seems predictable that the strategic turnaround, the allocation of
more resources, the change in tactics and the increase in US civilian
personnel will require other ISAF partners to come up with a simi-
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