Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Climate change and its security implications
Invites the relevant organs of the United Nations, as appropriate and
within their respective mandates, to intensify their efforts in considering
and addressing climate change, including its possible security implications.
The present report studies the consequences of climate change on
security matters and mitigation and adaptation as possible responses. It
begins by identifying the most significant aspects of the current situation
of climate change detected, future projections and expected impacts. It
goes on to discuss the subject from the perspective of how it affects the
security landscape.
CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change detected
Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases and atmospheric
aerosols and in solar radiation and the properties of the earth’s surface
are altering the energy balance of the climate system. These changes are
expressed as a function of radiative forcing (3) which is used to compare
how a variety of human and natural factors influence the warming or
cooling of the global climate.
The world atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide have risen significantly as a result of human activities since
1750, and have now surpassed the pre-industrial values established in
core ice samples spanning several hundred years. The overall increase in
carbon dioxide concentration, which has gone from a pre-industrial level
of approximately 280 ppm (4) to 379 ppm in 2005, is chiefly due to the use
of fossil fuels and changes in land use, while the rise in that of methane
and nitrous oxide is mainly due to agriculture. The IPCC-4AR (5) clearly
points to anthropogenic influence in global warming, establishing that the
(3) Radiative forcing is use to measure how a factor influences the change in the balance of
incoming and outgoing energy in the earth’s atmospheric system and is an indicator of
the importance of the factor as a potential driver of climate change. Positive forcing tends
to warm the surface, and negative to cool it. It is measured in Wm-2.
(4) ppm (parts per million) or ppb (parts per billion) is the ratio between the number of molecules
of greenhouse gas and the total number of dry air molecules.
(5) IPCC-4AR, «Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change», S. So l o m o n, D. Qin, M. Ma n n i n g et al., Cambridge University Press, 944 pp,
2007.
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