Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

The future of the nuclear non-proliferation regime: the 2010 NPT review conference
November 2009). The Treaty will set a limit of between 1,500 and 1,675
nuclear warheads for each state for the first seven years, while the number
of delivery vehicles (ballistic missiles, bombers and submarines) would be
established at between 500 and 1,100 projectiles.
Bilateral relations in nuclear strategic weapons issues are currently
regulated solely by the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions (SORT,
or the Moscow Treaty, which expires in 2012). The SORT Treaty sets a
limit of 2,200 nuclear warheads and 1,600 delivery vehicles, but lacks the
transparency and confidence measures of the START Treaty, as it fails
to specify the number of missiles each party may retain or the number
of warheads each missile may carry. What is more, each of the parties
may establish the structure and composition of its nuclear forces (ground
bases, strategic bombers or nuclear submarines), and nor does the Treaty
establish specific control mechanisms or restrictions of any kind on the
missiles and nuclear warheads when withdrawn from active service (i.e. it
omits any obligation to destroy them).
In any event, the differences between the US and Russia over the curtailment
of their respective nuclear arsenals are obvious, as evidenced by
the fact that they have not yet managed to agree on the replacement of the
START Treaty by a new one before the first one expires. In a joint communication
issued on 12 December 2009, Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitri
Medvedev agreed, following a telephone conversation, to broaden the talks
on the reduction of their nuclear arsenals. After delegations from both countries
held talks in Geneva that were described by the Kremlin as «intense and
full of determination», Obama and Medvedev agreed on the need to start
working towards a treaty which could successfully replace START I (50).
The US and Russia turned into the new year without having yet achieved
a new treaty on nuclear disarmament, though their leaders claim that
the document is nearly ready and will be signed when the last technical
details are finalised. Barack Obama stated on 18 December, after meeting
his Russian counterpart Dmitri Medvedev in Copenhagen, that the two
countries have made «excellent progress» and are «fairly close» to reaching
a consensus on the agreement that will replace the START Treaty.
In their last attempt to clinch a deal, the White House and the Kremlin
had the two teams of negotiators travel to the World Climate Summit in
Copenhagen, and the presidents themselves were so engrossed in their
(50) «Rusia y EE UU extienden conversaciones por pacto armas nucleares», Reuters, 12
December 2009, http://lta.reuters.com/article/topNews/idLTASIE5BB0LE20091212.
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