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Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

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Yolanda Castro Díez<br />

Heavy precipitation<br />

events.<br />

Frequency<br />

increases over<br />

most areas<br />

Area affected<br />

by drought<br />

increases<br />

Intense tropical<br />

cyclone activity<br />

increase<br />

Increased<br />

incidence<br />

of extreme<br />

high sea level<br />

(excludes tsunamis)<br />

Very likely<br />

Likely<br />

Likely<br />

Likely<br />

Damage to<br />

crops; soil<br />

erosion;<br />

inability to<br />

cultivate land<br />

due to water<br />

logging of<br />

soils<br />

Land degradation;<br />

lower yields/<br />

crop damage<br />

and failure;<br />

increased<br />

livestock<br />

deaths;<br />

increased<br />

risk of wildfire<br />

Damage<br />

to crops;<br />

wind throw<br />

(uprooting) of<br />

trees; damage<br />

to coral<br />

reefs<br />

Salinization<br />

of irrigation<br />

water, estuaries<br />

and<br />

freshwater<br />

systems<br />

Adverse<br />

effects on<br />

quality of<br />

surface and<br />

groundwater;<br />

contamination<br />

of water<br />

supply; water<br />

scarcity may<br />

be relieved.<br />

More widespread<br />

water<br />

stress<br />

Power outages<br />

causing<br />

disruption of<br />

public water<br />

supply<br />

Decreased<br />

freshwater<br />

availability<br />

due to saltwater<br />

intrusion<br />

Increased<br />

risk of<br />

deaths,<br />

injuries and<br />

infections,<br />

respiratory<br />

and skin<br />

diseases<br />

Increased<br />

risk of food<br />

and water<br />

shortage;<br />

increased<br />

risk of malnutrition;<br />

increased<br />

risk of<br />

water- and<br />

food-borne<br />

diseases<br />

Increased<br />

risk of<br />

deaths,<br />

injuries,<br />

water- and<br />

food-borne<br />

diseases;<br />

post-traumatic<br />

stress<br />

disorders<br />

Increased<br />

risk of<br />

deaths and<br />

injuries by<br />

drowning<br />

in floods;<br />

migrationrelated<br />

health<br />

effects<br />

Disruption of<br />

settlements,<br />

commerce,<br />

transport and<br />

societies due<br />

to flooding;<br />

pressures on<br />

urban and<br />

rural infrastructures;<br />

loss of<br />

property-<br />

Water shortages<br />

for settlements,<br />

industry<br />

and societies;<br />

reduced<br />

hydropower<br />

generations<br />

potentials;<br />

potential for<br />

population<br />

migration.<br />

Disruption<br />

by flood and<br />

high winds;<br />

withdrawal of<br />

risk coverage<br />

in vulnerable<br />

areas by private<br />

insurers,<br />

potential for<br />

population<br />

migrations, loss<br />

of property<br />

Cost of coastal<br />

protection<br />

versus cost of<br />

lands-use relocation;<br />

potential<br />

for movement<br />

of populations<br />

and<br />

infrastructure;<br />

also see tropical<br />

cyclones<br />

above<br />

(*) Refers to the possibility of future trends based on 21st-century projections according<br />

to the scenarios of the IPCC-4ARC.<br />

— 81 —

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