The Impact of Pesticides - Academy Publish

5,000 trials based on the probabilities distribution of each variable. As previouslystated, based on accidental ingestion dose and dermal contact dose, the simultaneousrisk was calculated in both contact ways for each substance (aggregate risk) for theNon Cancer effects and for the Cancer ones. The process of addition is conductediteration by iteration, so the results are a new distribution of values, for whichdescriptive statistics are obtained for later analysis.Biota Health Risk EstimationIt was previously stated that the risk to biota is estimated based on the ratioPEC/PNEC for selected ecosystem organisms. The PEC value used is thedistribution of probability of the concentrations of each pesticide, as performed forthe calculation of Human Health Risk. The Health Risk Biota result is a distributionof values obtained by adding the PEC/PNEC ratios for the two obtained biologicalgroups, iteration by iteration, by the application of Monte Carlo. From these, it wasalso obtained descriptive statistics to conduct analysis of the results.Interpretation of the Results of the DelAzulPestRisk ModelThe results offered by the model cannot be considered a formal measurement of riskbut an indication of it, since the model includes variables that are risk measures(human and biological) with others that are not (the half-life and thebioaccumulation potential). The risk values are dimensionless while neither life northe bioaccumulation potential are, so the integration of these terms ignoring theunits of the latter is a methodological decision that makes the model not a " risk"model but a "risk-based" one.Statistical AnalysisThe statistical analysis (obtaining descriptive statistics of the probabilitydistributions following the Monte Carlo application or determining the best fitmodel of probability distribution) was performed using Crystal Ball(Decisioneering, 2007), as well as the sensitivity analysis. This calculates sensitivitybased on the rank correlation coefficients between every parameter of the model andthe model results while the simulation is running (Decisioneering, 2007).RESULTSThe risk to human health analysis results show that no substance by itself is capableof producing health effects to the population, not even considering the carcinogeniceffects or the non carcinogenic ones, which had already been evidenced by Peluso etal. (2011b). However, in the DelAzulPestRisk model, the risks for carcinogeniceffects are finally estimated as a proportion of the value used as reference (10E -05 ),so the risk threshold value for each substance is 1 for each type of effect. If thesubstance has both types of effects (as it happens with the isomers of HCH, Aldrin,Chlordane and Heptachlor), the risk threshold value to health in theDelAzulPestRisk model is all the same 1. From the results presented in Table 5, itcan be seen that the substance that creates the greatest risk to human health isAcademyPublish.org - The Impact of Pesticides253