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The Impact of Pesticides - Academy Publish

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Table 8 shows the results <strong>of</strong> the DelAzulPestRisk model for Cypermethrin indescriptive statistics <strong>of</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> values obtained after the application <strong>of</strong>Monte Carlo. Figure 3 shows the probability distribution (lognormal) with a meanvalue quite low. Although the maximum value is around 90, the figure shows thatthis value has a negligible probability level. <strong>The</strong> P 95 <strong>of</strong> the probability distributionhas a certainty level greater than 90%.<strong>The</strong> sensitivity analysis performed to find which variables are the ones that areaffecting the most the total variance displays that the substance concentrationrepresents 98.6 % <strong>of</strong> the variance. Given the importance <strong>of</strong> this variable (alsoreflected in the high value <strong>of</strong> the variability coefficient (2.40)), it is clear thatpotential dangerousness would merit increasing the sampling <strong>of</strong> water quality giventhe high dispersion <strong>of</strong> concentration data <strong>of</strong> this substance.Table 7. Results <strong>of</strong> application <strong>of</strong> the DelAzulPestRisk model for the AggravatingFactor (AF).Substance Per a Log BCF AF2,4 D 2.40 0.50 2.90α – HCH 3.48 2.40 5.88β - HCH 3.48 2.40 5.88 - HCH 3.48 2.40 5.88γ- HCH 3.48 2.40 5.88Acetochlor 2.78 1.67 4.45Aldrin 4.28 3.96 8.24Cypermethrin 3.26 2.99 6.24Chlorpyrifos 3.26 2.94 6.20Endosulfan 4.38 2.19 6.57EndosulfanSulphate4.41 2.08 6.49γ - Chlordane 4.94 4.12 9.06Glyphosate 1.79 0.50 2.29Heptachlor 4.47 3.28 7.75a Persistence value (measured as 5- halflife)Table 8. Probabilistic results after applying the DelAzulPestRisk model.Substance Mean SD Median Min. Max. P95 CV3.54 8.49 1.20 1.15 9.12 1.390 2.40CypermethrinE +00 E +00 E +00 E -01 E +01 E +01 E +00<strong>Academy</strong><strong>Publish</strong>.org - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Pesticides</strong>256

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