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280218_Luxor-Egypt SECAP Final_revised

Section IV: Climate

Section IV: Climate Adaptation Plan 1. Executive summary This section aims at providing Climate Action for internal guidance to the Governorate of Luxor (Municipality) regarding the vulnerability of climate change, climate risk assessment and climate adaptation. The proposed structure has been developed based on extensive literature review. This study, which is an integral part of the sustainable energy and climate action plan (SECAP), is a strategic document as well as an operational tool. Current trends indicate that climate change (CC) is happening due to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in recent years as a result of burning great quantities of fossil fuels and deforestation. In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems worldwide. Evidence of CC impacts was observable in different sectors that also have consequences for social and human aspects of the built environment. This section describes the SECAP - Climate Adaptation Action (CAA). It comprises three main parts that are dedicated to analysing the existing situation in Egypt and the Governorate and City of Luxor. It also presents a study conducted on the Risk Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment in order to define the adaptation actions already in place or suggested to be implemented by the Governorate of Luxor and the City of Luxor. 2. Current Status Analysis This chapter focuses on an introduction to climate change impacts particularly in Mediterranean countries. It also highlights the National and Regional Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation. This is followed by a part dedicated to climate data feeding in estimations of the climate change impacts in the future, as well the evolution of the climate conditions in the area (temperature increase, rainfalls etc.). The last part of this chapter focuses on adaptation scoreboard, including a self-assessment from the Governorate of Luxor against the standard adaptation scoreboard in the SECAP template. 2.1. Introduction to Climate Change Impact The Mediterranean region is rich in a large variety of complex climatic phenomena, linked with its morphology and geographical location. Indeed, the Mediterranean Sea in a transitional band between subtropical and middle latitude regimes, offering large climate variability at multiple timescales and a strong seasonal variability of precipitation in many areas (Lionello 2012). The Mediterranean region has been identified as a prominent “Hot-Spots” in future climate change projections (Giorgi 2006). The water cycle and its extremes are one of the major concerns, since there are many countries that are over exploiting water resources, a problem that is expected to deteriorate in the future. Episodes of extreme precipitation are also taking place and disastrous floods are a major threat for the region, especially the coastal areas. In addition to the above, cultivation of marginal land, overgrazing and firewood harvesting put more pressure on the environment, particularly in the Southern Mediterranean Countries, such as (Lionello 2012). According to Luterbacher, et al. (2006), the Mediterranean region has experienced drastic changes in its climate over the years. Figure 14 presents the seasonal mean temperature for the period 1961-1990 depicted in panels A-D, while the total precipitation maps for the same period are depicted in panels E-H. 76

Figure 14: Seasonal (winter: December – January – February; spring: March – April – May; summer: June – July – August; autumn: September – October – November) mean temperature (oC, panels A-D) and total precipitation (mm per season, panels E-H) maps for the period 1961 -1990 based on CRU data - Source: Lionello, 2012 Figure 15: Multi Global Model Ensemble (MGME) average change in surface air temperature for the four seasons, 2071–2100 minus 1961–1990. Units are °C. DJF is December–January–February, MAM is March–April–May, JJA is June–July–August, SON is September–October–November Source: Giorgi et al., 2008 According to European Investment Bank (EIB) report of 2008, for the Mediterranean region, climate experts anticipate during the 21 st century: • An increase in air temperature in the range of 2.2 C° to 5.1 C° for the countries of Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region over the period 2080 – 2099 with respect to the period 1980 – 1999; • A significant decrease in rainfall, ranging between -4 and -27 % for the countries of Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region (while the countries of Northern Europe will report a rise between 0 and 16 %); • Increase in drought periods manifested by a high frequency of days during which the temperature would exceed 30 °C. Extreme events, such as heat waves, droughts or floods, are likely to be more frequent and violent; and • An increase of the sea level, which, according to some specific studies, could be around 35 cm up to the end of the century. Giannakopoulos et al. (2005) underlines that, the most significant temperature increases in the 21 st century are expected in Eastern Egypt and especially the Nile Delta, Lebanon, Israel and the Maghreb. It is therefore evident that the more vulnerable Mediterranean areas will be those of North Africa adjacent to desert areas, the major deltas (such the Nile one), the coastal areas (Northern rim and Southern rim of the Mediterranean basin), as well as the high-demographic growth and socially vulnerable areas (Southern and Eastern rim, 77

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