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020318_Hurghada SECAP_FINAL

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Energy consumption in GWh<br />

12.0<br />

10.0<br />

8.0<br />

6.0<br />

4.0<br />

2.0<br />

9000<br />

8000<br />

7000<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

Annual cost in kEGP<br />

0.0<br />

Municipal building Public lighting Municipal Fleet Water and Waste<br />

management<br />

0<br />

GWh/an<br />

EGP<br />

Figure 8: Governorate Assets Services Energy Consumption and Costs – <strong>Hurghada</strong> (2015)<br />

2.4. Business-As-Usual scenario<br />

Starting from present data, the BAU reference scenario projects the evolution of energy and emission levels forward to<br />

the target year (2030), under the hypothesis of continuing current trends in population, economy, technology and<br />

human behaviour, without the implementation of additional emission reduction actions. Thus, a BAU coefficient was<br />

calculated for Egypt by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. For each year this coefficient<br />

represents the multiplication factor to reach emission of year 2030. The BAU scenario of the city of <strong>Hurghada</strong> forecasts<br />

an important rise of emission until 2020 (+34%), and then a stabilisation until 2030 (- 4%). Table 9 and Chart 9 present<br />

BAU scenarios for 2015-2029.<br />

TABLE 9: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER SECTOR AND PER ENERGY IN THE CITY OF HURGHADA (2015)<br />

KteCO2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029<br />

Coeff 1;29 1.22 1.15 1.08 1.02 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1 1<br />

Residential 215 228 241 257 272 289 286 286 283 283 280 280 280 278 278<br />

Tertiary 158 167 177 188 199 212 210 210 207 207 205 205 205 203 203<br />

Pub. Lighting 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8<br />

Industry 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6<br />

Transport 352 372 395 421 445 473 468 468 464 464 459 459 459 454 454<br />

Water, Waste 23 25 26 28 29 31 31 31 31 31 30 30 30 30 30<br />

Tourism 491 519 551 586 621 660 653 653 646 646 640 640 640 633 633<br />

Agriculture 88 94 99 106 112 119 118 118 116 116 115 115 115 114 114<br />

1339 1416 1502 1599 1693 1799 1780 1780 1762 1762 1745 1745 1745 1727 1727<br />

35

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