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020318_Hurghada SECAP_FINAL

a) Decadal trends & b)

a) Decadal trends & b) Area average annual time series for 24.375 - 35.625°E, 21.25 - 31.25 °N. Figure 21: Total annual precipitation for Egypt over the period 1960 to 2003 relative to 1961-1990 from HadEX (Alexander et. al, 2006) 4.2.2. Climate change weather scenarios Source: UK Met Office, 2011 The CC World Weather Gen generates the climate change weather scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080 for worldwide locations to be used in building performance simulation programs. It is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report 56 . The Energy plus weather data used in the simulation was taken from the energy plus program, validated by U.S. Department of Energy (DoE). TABLE 11: SCENARIO DAY (1 JULY) – CITY OF HURGHADA, GOVERNORATE OF RED SEA Year Dry-bulb Temperature °C Relative Humidity % G Horizontal Radiation W/m 2 Wind Speed % 1980-2003 34 28 559 7.2 2050 37.5 15 612 2.6 2080 39.8 25 555 7 56 Climate Change World Weather File Generator for World-Wide Weather Data – CCWorldWeatherGen – avaliable at : http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/ccworldweathergen/ 80

The following figures present the scenarios Day 1 July for the city of Hurghada in the years 1980-2003, 2050 and 2080. The scenarios show that the increase will be manifested in temperature by 2050 and 2080, whereas the relative humidity, G horizontal radiation, and wind speed will witness a decrease by 2050 and 2080 49 . Figure 22.a represents the dry-bulb temperature for the abovementioned years. It is clear from Figure 22.a that temperature will increase by 10.3 percent from 34°C in 1980-2003 to 37.5 °C by 2050, and an increase in temperature of 17.1% by 2080. Figure 22.b shows the RH trend for the years 1980-2003, 2050 and 2080. By 2050, the RH will decrease by 10.7%. It will be further decreased in 2080 by 4% and 14.3% from the baseline (1980-2003). Figure 22.c represents the G horizontal radiation (W/m 2 ) for the abovementioned years. It is clear from Figure 22.c that the G horizontal radiation will decrease from 559 W/m 2 in year 1980-2003 to be 555 W/m 2 by 2050; a decrease of 0.7%. However, it will decrease by 1.1% in 2080 compared to the baseline years 1980-2003. In the wind speed scenario for the same day (1 July), Figure 22.d. shows the wind speed for 1980-2003, 2050 and 2080. By 2050, the wind speed will decrease by 2.8%. It will be further decreased in 2080 by 1.4% and 4.2% from the baseline (1980-2003). 39.8 28 37.5 34 25 24 Hurghada 1980- 2003 Hurghada 2050 Hurghada 2080 Hurghada 1980- 2003 Hurghada 2050 Hurghada 2080 a. Dry-bulb temperature (°C) scenarios b. Relative humidity (%) scenarios 559 7.2 555 553 7 6.9 Hurghada 1980- 2003 Hurghada 2050 Hurghada 2080 Hurghada 1980- 2003 Hurghada 2050 Hurghada 2080 c. G Horizontal Radiation (W/m 2 ) scenarios d. Wind speed scenarios Figure 22: Climate scenarios for the city of Hurghada 1980-2003, 2050 and 2080 4.2.3. Climate Change risks – Hurghada Climate change impact in the city of Hurghada will be in different sectors. The city will be exposed to risks in sectors such as agriculture, water, tourism, urban and health. Table 12 (below) describes these climate change risks in detail. 81

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