FY2014 Recommended Budget - City of Surprise

Local Sales Tax (excluding construction and bed tax)
FY2013 FY2014 $ %
Estimate Forecast Inc/(Dec) Inc/(Dec)
31,369,800 32,051,500 681,700 2%
Description
The local sales tax (non-construction sales tax) is the recurring sales tax revenue that is collected by the city on an annual basis through the
course of doing business. The construction sales taxes have been separated out and addressed under local sales tax (construction sales
tax). These revenues are recorded in the general fund.
FY2013
Actuals FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY 2011 FY2012 Adopted
Revenue Collected
Forecast Assumptions
18,992,959 14,820,787 17,957,463 23,036,154 27,818,750 29,395,000
A sales tax projection team comprised of the Chief Financial Officer, the sales tax audit division, and members of the budget staff was
created to forecast and monitor the local sales tax. Forecasts are done individually within each of 12 different categories (industries) using
industry specific information (e.g. big box retail, restaurant and bar, etc.). Sales taxes have declined from FY2007 through FY2010. However,
this trend appears to have stopped with revenues increasing in FY2011 and projected increases through FY2018 as the economy improves.
Forecast
FY2013
Estimate FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
Projected Revenue 31,369,800 32,051,500 31,974,900 33,399,500 36,145,600 39,320,900
Millions
$45.0
$40.0
$35.0
$30.0
$25.0
$20.0
$15.0
$10.0
$5.0
$0.0
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY 2011 FY2012 FY2013
Adopted
FY2013
Estimate
FY2013 FY2014 $ %
Estimate Forecast Inc/(Dec) Inc/(Dec)
4,163,000 3,200,000 (963,000) -23%
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
Local Construction Sales Tax (Construction Sales Tax)
Description
This represents the one-time construction sales tax revenue that is collected by the city of Surprise on an annual basis through the course of
doing business. The ongoing sales taxes have been separated out and addressed under local sales tax (non-construction sales tax). These
revenues are recorded in the general fund.
FY2013
Actuals FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY 2011 FY2012 Adopted
Revenue Collected 10,308,703 9,025,489 5,318,360 3,203,879 2,935,090 2,200,000
Forecast Assumptions
The construction sales tax forecast is based on estimates from the Community and Economic Development Department of the number of
single family residential permits completed and square feet of non-single family residential permits completed. Non-single family residential
permits include multi-family, office/institution, and commercial/customer service. Year-to-date trends are used for the projected revenue per
square foot starting in FY2010. Construction sales taxes have declined since FY2006 due to the recessionary economy and reduced
construction activity.
Forecast
FY2013
Estimate FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
Projected Revenue 4,163,000 3,200,000 4,665,300 7,299,900 9,290,800 10,257,600
Millions
$12.0
$10.0
$8.0
$6.0
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
18
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY 2011 FY2012 FY2013
Adopted
FY2013
Estimate
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018