North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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The four pillars of the traditional political regime – fear, isolation, elite unity, and the Juch’e ideology – have begun to show noticeable cracks and signs of erosion. Today, <strong>North</strong> Korea is a different country than it was when the Great Leader passed away a decade ago. It is in the midst of a “stealthy” structural transition affecting all areas of the national economy, politics, and society, as well as people from all walks of life – strengthening neo-authoritarian military rule and accelerating catch-up modernization reforms aimed against the communist party rule and socialist economic stagnation. The regime is evolving and slowly cracking. It is high time for foreign influence to start shaping the direction of future developments inside the hermit kingdom. IV-S-2
A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LIFE Since the initiation of the political and socio-economic reforms in the fall of 1998, life has been getting better in the DPRK. It has been an uphill battle, with all the twists and turns accompanying a national transition from a highly centralized and overly militarized commandand-control economy to an increasingly decentralized market-oriented economy, from a totalitarian to a neo-authoritarian political regime, from a totally closed Juch’e-based society preaching communist ideals to a gradually opening society rediscovering its traditional neo- Confucian roots and reviving post-colonial nationalism as its mass-mobilizing ideology. Structural transition does pay off, slowly but inevitably. There are more visible signs of improvement in people’s daily lives than ever before. More electric lights in many more public places, along the roads, and at residential homes are turned on for longer hours, both in large cities and in small villages. More urban and rural buildings are repaired and given a facelift with fresh paint, new tile, and modern glass window packages. A construction boom is visible everywhere. 1 Significantly more vehicular traffic is observable in the streets, causing traffic jams and a surge in pedestrian and car accidents. As of December 2003, the number of large-scale district markets (over 500 registered private vendors) stood at 38, and is projected to grow to 42 in the near future. Street vendors, both mobile and stationary, are everywhere, trading all kinds of daily necessities, snacks, baked chestnuts, sweet potatoes, soft drinks, household appliances, kitchenware, clothes, and what have you (see Appendices A and B). The number of people engaged in small businesses has soared recently. Foreign exchange in the Juch’e corner of the “Eurozone” (Euros, U.S. dollars, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and other hard currencies) can be bought and sold at will, without punishment, in the streets and at the state-licensed exchange offices that begin to crowd out the black market currency traders. The Kim Il Sung University faculty is in a rush to revise economics textbooks before the beginning of the new school year in April 2004, in order to better reflect maximum profit-driven new economic realities. 1 In 2003, a number of new construction material businesses with local and foreign private stakes were established in the vicinity of Pyongyang, including the Seungho Cement Factory on the Nam River, the Sangwon Cement Union Company opened on June 14, 2003, a Slate Factory based on a joint DPRK-PRC venture opened on November 25, 2003, a Chinese-financed $50M JV glass factory, and others. IV-1
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
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technocrats, provincial and county
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PREFACE This paper will examine in
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ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
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information streams, and from him t
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within the hands of a few individua
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and whether or not he will embarras
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to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
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strengthening of all armed forces,
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esearch institutes and “think tan
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The primary missions of the Reconna
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communication that generally fall o
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of the State Security Department or
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maintaining strict control over the
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agencies in the ROK and Japan began
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The Guard and Security Commands, wh
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eports that are funneled up through
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Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
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Within the military, this dynamic c
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him that all significant orders and
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Until the 1990s, the electronic med
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II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
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TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
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The factional struggles in North Ko
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A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
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C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
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document control bureaus in each mi
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Originally implemented in 1994 and
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Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
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of associates who trace their relat
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September 9, 2003, showed a change
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Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
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Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
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Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
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Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
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chance to unfold. In terms of syste
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domestic policy arena, the split is
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At the second echelon of power, Kim
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D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
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about things that affect their care
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(ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
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For the rest of the North Korean le
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the focus for not only a significan
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At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
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There is little doubt that one of t
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decision-making process. Moreover,
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III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
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Page 117: greater access to first-hand inform
Page 120 and 121: The first question addressed by thi
Page 122 and 123: But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
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Page 126 and 127: Another way to look at divisions wi
Page 128 and 129: Because the Kim regime governs acco
Page 130 and 131: guess is that anyone who rises in t
Page 132 and 133: But even though the media serve as
Page 134 and 135: Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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Page 138 and 139: Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
Page 140 and 141: This selection of news items presen
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Page 146 and 147: also countries surrounding the Kore
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Page 152 and 153: eceived with little thought and has
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Page 159: IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
Page 163: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
Page 167 and 168: In contrast, the optimists believe
Page 169 and 170: to the throne. The State Council us
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Page 179 and 180: controlling some of North Korea’s
Page 181 and 182: also against the second-tier family
Page 183 and 184: Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
Page 185 and 186: “National Security Establishment
Page 187 and 188: October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
Page 189 and 190: severe draught in 1988 and the dram
Page 192 and 193: The advent of the “Songun Era”
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Page 196 and 197: Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
Page 198 and 199: Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
Page 200 and 201: Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Page 204 and 205: Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
Page 206 and 207: Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
Page 208 and 209: “Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
Page 210 and 211: Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
Page 212 and 213: Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
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Society is divided into three broad
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contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Internet is not specifically mentio
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led to a training program for young
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North Korea’s exports from legiti
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een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
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worker who travels throughout North
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If we want to reach into North Kore
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conversations with the correct mix
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Although the future of cellular tel
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There are a host of other things on
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Each of the five papers in this col
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promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
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although presumably all calls are m
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cultural rules.” Given the “str
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Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
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Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
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APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
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In any case, the reforms provide a
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View from Seoul The single most imp
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