North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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corruption. 38 Table II-8. Factional Leanings within the North Korean Elite 39 the KWP’s State Security Department, which has increasingly been tainted with rumors of Name Personality Policy Line Moderates Kim Chong-il Chairman, NDC, Politburo, Secretariat Moderate Pak Song-chol Politburo Moderate Han Song-yong Politburo Moderate Yon Hyung-muk Politburo, NDC Moderate (reform tendencies) Yi Ha-il Director, KWP Military Affairs Department Moderate (reform tendencies) Conservatives Kim Yong-chu Politburo Conservative Kim Yong-nam Politburo Conservative Kye Ung-tae Politburo, Secretariat Conservative Chon Pyong-ho Politburo Conservative Kim Ki-nam Secretariat Conservative Kim Kuk-tae Secretariat Conservative O Kuk-ryul Director, KWP Operations Department Conservative Cho Myong-nok Director, General Political Bureau Conservative (but open to limited reform) Kim Il-chol Minister of People’s Armed Forces Conservative Kim Yong-chun Chief of General Staff Conservative (but open to limited reform) Yi Ul-sol Commander, Guard Command Conservative Kim Song-ae Central Committee (Kim Il-sung’s second Conservative wife) Open Yang Hyong-sop Politburo Open Kim Chung-nin Secretariat Open Kim Pok-sin Chancellor, Cabinet Open Kim Kyung-hui Director, KWP Light Industry Department Open Kim Tu-nam Member, Kim Chong-il Personal Secretariat Open 38 Kim Chong-il lacks sole control over the SSD, which has reporting channels elsewhere within the leadership, namely to Chang Song-taek (in the OGD) and the KWP Secretary for Security Affairs, Kye Ung-tae. It is likely that if Kim Chong-il wants to keep a watch on people within his own retinue, he will use the Security Command. See author’s paper The North Korean Leadership: Evolving Regime Dynamics in the Kim Chong-il Era, op. cit. 39 The policy lines described in this table represent a consensus view based on numerous discussions with Pyongyang watchers and North Korean defectors. It is important to point out that in the North Korean political system, terms such as “moderate” and “conservative” do not equate with similar terms in western political discourse. Moderates are those that take a more pragmatic approach to policies, while conservatives take a view that policies should rigidly adhere to ideological principles. Those who are “open” do not appear to fit easily in the other two categories and have expressed views that transcend these factional boundaries. II-26
At the second echelon of power, Kim Chong-il has adopted divide-and-rule tactics. Through compartmentalization, power has been dispersed among various agencies and interdepartmental competition has been intensified. At the apex of national authority, Kim alone has final and absolute say on major policies. 40 This strategy has apparently heightened Kim’s political autonomy from within. Cooperation, bargaining, and coordination among the various departments is possible only through Kim Chong-il. Therefore, if departments (or individuals) want to win favors and enjoy more power, they have to forge a close relationship with Kim, competing among themselves to demonstrate their loyalty to the leader. As part of Kim Chong-il’s hub-and-spoke decision-making style, he often circumnavigates direct chains of command in order to give him alternate reservoirs of information. This allows him to access information that may otherwise be denied through formal channels. It also allows him to keep tabs on the senior leadership. As was outlined above, he does this by forming alliances within critical second echelon institutions inside the military and party apparatuses. He also does this within the foreign policy apparatus. Kim by-passes the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paek Nam-sun, to seek advice and guidance from key protégés within the ministry, 41 which keeps other senior leaders off balance and prevents them from using their bureaucracy as a breeding ground for anti-regime cabals and plots. Finally, a system of privileges exists in North Korea to ensure loyalty to the regime. Kim Chong-il has instituted a program, run out of his personal secretariat, of systematically rewarding close allies with money and gifts. This has created a system whereby competition among the elites focuses more on personal favors than on society’s need for economic and political reform. This in effect blunts the policymaking process since elites are reticent to support initiatives (e.g., reforms) that would jeopardize their careers. Therefore, the regime is left with a narrow range of policy alternatives to address both domestic and international problems. 42 40 Under the Kim Il-sung leadership, interdepartmental coordination was stressed, rather than competition. Influential figures were often appointed to top positions in two or more organizations to facilitate horizontal coordination among different agencies. Ryoo Kihl-jae, “North Korean Regime Under Kim Chong-il’s Leadership: Changes in Systems and Politics,” Vantage Point, 20 (5), 1997. 41 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ USA Bureau and Office of Counselors are especially influential. Key members of these organizations include Chang Chong-chon (director of the USA Bureau), Pak Myong-kuk, Kim Kye-kwan, and Ambassador Yi Yong-ho. 42 There are some indications that elements within the second and third generations may be more flexible in their view of reform, provided it does not severely impact their lives. Discussion with South Korean analysts and North Korean defectors. II-27
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
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technocrats, provincial and county
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PREFACE This paper will examine in
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ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
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information streams, and from him t
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within the hands of a few individua
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and whether or not he will embarras
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to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
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strengthening of all armed forces,
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esearch institutes and “think tan
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The primary missions of the Reconna
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communication that generally fall o
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of the State Security Department or
Page 42 and 43: maintaining strict control over the
Page 44 and 45: agencies in the ROK and Japan began
Page 46 and 47: The Guard and Security Commands, wh
Page 48 and 49: eports that are funneled up through
Page 50 and 51: Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
Page 52 and 53: Within the military, this dynamic c
Page 54 and 55: him that all significant orders and
Page 56 and 57: Until the 1990s, the electronic med
Page 59: II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
Page 62 and 63: TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
Page 64 and 65: The factional struggles in North Ko
Page 67 and 68: A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
Page 69 and 70: C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
Page 71 and 72: document control bureaus in each mi
Page 73 and 74: Originally implemented in 1994 and
Page 75 and 76: Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
Page 77 and 78: of associates who trace their relat
Page 79 and 80: September 9, 2003, showed a change
Page 81 and 82: Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
Page 83 and 84: Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
Page 85 and 86: Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
Page 87 and 88: Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
Page 89 and 90: chance to unfold. In terms of syste
Page 91: domestic policy arena, the split is
Page 95 and 96: D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
Page 97 and 98: about things that affect their care
Page 99 and 100: (ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
Page 101 and 102: For the rest of the North Korean le
Page 103 and 104: the focus for not only a significan
Page 105 and 106: At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
Page 107 and 108: There is little doubt that one of t
Page 109 and 110: decision-making process. Moreover,
Page 111: III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
Page 115 and 116: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
Page 117: greater access to first-hand inform
Page 120 and 121: The first question addressed by thi
Page 122 and 123: But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
Page 124 and 125: as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
Page 126 and 127: Another way to look at divisions wi
Page 128 and 129: Because the Kim regime governs acco
Page 130 and 131: guess is that anyone who rises in t
Page 132 and 133: But even though the media serve as
Page 134 and 135: Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
Page 136 and 137: motivation in its readers through m
Page 138 and 139: Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
Page 140 and 141: This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
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Society is divided into three broad
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contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Internet is not specifically mentio
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led to a training program for young
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North Korea’s exports from legiti
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een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
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worker who travels throughout North
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If we want to reach into North Kore
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conversations with the correct mix
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Although the future of cellular tel
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There are a host of other things on
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Each of the five papers in this col
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promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
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although presumably all calls are m
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cultural rules.” Given the “str
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Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
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Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
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APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
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In any case, the reforms provide a
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View from Seoul The single most imp
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