North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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There are several ways of looking at factionalism, as it exists in North Korea today. For example, it is possible to examine similarities and differences between generations. On the issue of North Korea’s nuclear program, factions break along several different lines. Much of the intransigence in the North Korean position is found within the first generation leaders, whose views are more grounded in the chuche ideology. They feel threatened by superior U.S. military capabilities and by talk of regime change. On this issue, they are allied with hard line military leaders, 31 who argue the need for nuclear weapons as a guarantee for regime survival. They are opposed by technocrats, many western educated, who see the benefit in negotiating away North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs to pave the way for a new relationship with the United States and other regional players that will ensure the regime’s survival and create a better environment for economic reforms. 32 Another way of looking at factionalism is in terms of institutions. While the opacity of the system does not allow clear insight into the decision-making process, defector accounts and analysis of the visible orientation of specific leaders suggest that different institutions represent different views and political leanings. Kim Chong-il promotes a system whereby he is the focal point for many separate chains of command. This, in turn, leads to a scramble for influence at the next echelon of power. 33 As a result, this hub-and-spoke approach to regime management has created a system of checks and balances with regard to the decision-making process. In the area of foreign affairs, the KWP’s International Department and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs appear to be more moderate and progressive, while the OGD, Propaganda and Agitation Department, military, and security forces appear to be more conservative. 34 Within the and militant, appeared to have been drafted by committee. Aidan Foster-Carter, “Guns or Butter,” Pyongyang Watch (November 5, 2002). 31 The military should not be assumed to be a monolith when it comes to policy debates; there are rumored to be several factions within the military, breaking down by generation and patronage system. Officers of the third generation, who make up a major portion of the field commanders, are believed to be a reservoir of hard-line sentiment within the armed forces. The high command is believed to be split on the issue of reform. 32 This assessment based on discussion with South Korean and Chinese Pyongyang watchers. 33 Under the Kim Il-sung leadership, interdepartmental coordination was stressed, rather than competition. Influential figures often were appointed to top positions in two or more organizations to facilitate horizontal coordination among different agencies. Under Kim Chong-il, the strategy has shifted towards inter-agency competition and away from coordination. Ryoo Kihl-jae, “North Korean Regime Under Kim Chong-il’s Leadership: Changes in Systems and Politics,” Vantage Point, 20 (5), 1997. This strategy apparently has heightened Kim’s political autonomy from within. With compartmentalization, power has been dispersed among various agencies and inter-departmental competition has been intensified. At the apex of national authority, Kim alone has final and absolute say on major policies. 34 It should be noted, however, that within institutions there can be widely differing viewpoints on policy initiatives. For example, Chang Song-taek is rumored to be a reformer within the conservative OGD. Within the military, the senior leadership appears to be more willing to support economic and foreign policy reform efforts than commanders at lower echelons. II-24
domestic policy arena, the split is clear-cut between moderate economists and diplomats, who argue for greater reform and an opening up to the outside world, and conservative military and security cadre, who may still support reform, but at a more controlled pace. 35 These debates, however, should be understood within the larger context of North Korean politics. Policy debates are not between hawks and doves, but between ideologues, bent on adhering to principles, and pragmatists, who emphasize practicality. On issues of reform, debates do not seem to focus on the need for reform as much as on the pace of reform. Table 8 attempts to link various North Korean leaders to a particular policy line based on the author’s discussions with numerous North Korean watchers and some senior-level defectors. Kim Chong-il’s Measures for Neutralizing Factionalism Kim Chong-il has adopted several measures for blunting and neutralizing opposition within his regime. His basic power-building strategy is designed to maintain links with the various factions within the leadership. It is important to understand that factions are not standalone entities based on policy. The issue of power cuts across all the factions, thus neutralizing them in terms of their ability to coalesce as centers of opposition to Kim Chong-il. 36 Another strategy employed by Kim Chong-il is the constant shifting of lines of demarcation between the various bureaucracies. This is characterized by the granting and taking away of authority. In this way, Kim Chong-il can keep potential rivals off balance. He even uses this strategy to keep his key allies in check. For example, Gen. Won Ung-hui, commander of the Security Command, is seen as a counterweight to powerbrokers in the military high command, such as Cho Myong-nok and Kim Yong-chun. Gen. Won reports directly to Kim Chong-il. Since the 1995 coup attempt, the Security Command has grown in influence, having been elevated in status from a bureau. 37 In recent years, it has been given authority to conduct operations and surveillance outside of the military sphere. This enhanced portfolio has come at the expense of 35 Moderates at the forefront of policy debates include Hong Song-nam (and presumably now his successor, Pak Pong-chu), Pak Song-chol, Han Song-ryong, Kang Sok-ju, Yon Hyong-muk, Paek Nam-sun, Kim Yong-sun, and Chang Song-taek. Conservative spokesmen include Yi Ul-sol, Paek Hak-nim, Chon Byong-ho, and Kim Guk-tae. Cho Myong-nok and Kim Yong-chun appear to take a middle road between the two groups. Discussions with Lim Chae-hyong. 36 In many respects, power within the North Korean system is a “zero-sum” game. If one faction gains, by default, another must lose. By creating a system that thrives on competition for influence, with Kim at the center, he is able to blunt the creation of a legitimate opposition, for this would violate the rules by which the system operates. 37 This was an alleged coup attempt involving the Sixth Corps. For a detailed account of the coup attempt, see Joseph Bermudez, “Failed 1995 Military Coup in North Korea Revealed.” (self-published on the web, 1996). See also Joseph Bermudez, Shield of the Great Leader: The Armed Forces of North Korea. (Australia: Allen and Unwin, 2001). II-25
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
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technocrats, provincial and county
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PREFACE This paper will examine in
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ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
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information streams, and from him t
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within the hands of a few individua
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and whether or not he will embarras
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to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
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strengthening of all armed forces,
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esearch institutes and “think tan
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The primary missions of the Reconna
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communication that generally fall o
Page 40 and 41: of the State Security Department or
Page 42 and 43: maintaining strict control over the
Page 44 and 45: agencies in the ROK and Japan began
Page 46 and 47: The Guard and Security Commands, wh
Page 48 and 49: eports that are funneled up through
Page 50 and 51: Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
Page 52 and 53: Within the military, this dynamic c
Page 54 and 55: him that all significant orders and
Page 56 and 57: Until the 1990s, the electronic med
Page 59: II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
Page 62 and 63: TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
Page 64 and 65: The factional struggles in North Ko
Page 67 and 68: A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
Page 69 and 70: C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
Page 71 and 72: document control bureaus in each mi
Page 73 and 74: Originally implemented in 1994 and
Page 75 and 76: Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
Page 77 and 78: of associates who trace their relat
Page 79 and 80: September 9, 2003, showed a change
Page 81 and 82: Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
Page 83 and 84: Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
Page 85 and 86: Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
Page 87 and 88: Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
Page 89: chance to unfold. In terms of syste
Page 93 and 94: At the second echelon of power, Kim
Page 95 and 96: D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
Page 97 and 98: about things that affect their care
Page 99 and 100: (ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
Page 101 and 102: For the rest of the North Korean le
Page 103 and 104: the focus for not only a significan
Page 105 and 106: At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
Page 107 and 108: There is little doubt that one of t
Page 109 and 110: decision-making process. Moreover,
Page 111: III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
Page 115 and 116: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
Page 117: greater access to first-hand inform
Page 120 and 121: The first question addressed by thi
Page 122 and 123: But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
Page 124 and 125: as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
Page 126 and 127: Another way to look at divisions wi
Page 128 and 129: Because the Kim regime governs acco
Page 130 and 131: guess is that anyone who rises in t
Page 132 and 133: But even though the media serve as
Page 134 and 135: Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
Page 136 and 137: motivation in its readers through m
Page 138 and 139: Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
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Society is divided into three broad
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contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Internet is not specifically mentio
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led to a training program for young
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North Korea’s exports from legiti
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een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
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worker who travels throughout North
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If we want to reach into North Kore
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conversations with the correct mix
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Although the future of cellular tel
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There are a host of other things on
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Each of the five papers in this col
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promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
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although presumably all calls are m
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cultural rules.” Given the “str
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Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
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Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
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APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
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In any case, the reforms provide a
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View from Seoul The single most imp
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