North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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The factional struggles in North Korean history have come in two varieties: struggles for power and struggles for influence. When the leader is in full control, factionalism is restricted to the second echelon, but this can be transformed into warlordism when the system comes under duress at the top. At present, factional politics in North Korea appear to take place at the second echelon, where officials compete with each other to secure influence with Kim Chong-il. Flow of Information Kim Chong-il has taken great steps to ensure that he is the most informed member of the leadership and, at the same time, to restrict access for others. He is the only individual within the regime who has unrestricted access to foreign media. His sources of information include: • An information management system whereby all documents are routed through his personal secretariat • An extensive surveillance apparatus • Alliances with key figures within the regime, such as his sister, Kim Kyong-hui • Foreign intelligence gathering apparatus (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, KWP’s International and External Liaison departments) • “Third Floor” operatives As for the rest of the leadership, information necessary to run the day-to-day affairs of the North Korean regime is highly compartmentalized and frequently monitored. This leads to a system of half knowledge and an illusion of being informed. Those at the top of the leadership have access to more sensitive information about the regime. But, even the most senior leaders are restricted in the amount of access they can have on issues related to the security of the regime. Sources of internal information available to leaders include: • Staff-prepared reports • Unofficial elite network • Information technology (telephones, Internet, and Intranet) • Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chosun Central News Agency-routed reports • Limited access to the North Korean diplomatic community Implications for the Future The long-term survival of the Kim Chong-il regime will be determined by Kim’s ability to control the North Korean elite. Relying on a strategy of divide-and-rule and internally restricting the flow of information, he has been able to maintain his grip on the regime. But, this strategy has the tendency to create cleavages, which will increasingly make it difficult to manage all the power groups/elites. As pressure on the regime grows, three factors will be critical: legitimacy, system vulnerabilities, and warlordism. II-S-2
Legitimacy Kim Chong-il has already eroded much of this legitimacy by not following the pursuit of power through legally established channels when he assumed the portfolio of General Secretary in 1997. Up until now, this violation of party procedures has not led to direct challenges to Kim’s authority. However, if pressure on the system continues to erode the foundation of privileges that support the elite, opposition to the dynastic succession, which exists beneath the surface, could erupt into a struggle for power. In such a struggle, the opposition could seize the initiative by highlighting Kim’s lack of institutional legitimacy. System Vulnerabilities Many of the vulnerabilities of the North Korean system reside with the elite. It is a class that for decades has been insulated from the horrors that are experienced throughout the country. As the North Korean economy has deteriorated, many elites have opened trading companies to earn foreign currency. This in turn has led to increasing corruption and weakening of the cohesion of the privileged class. Since the North Korean system is based on “feudal service nobility,” where loyalty is ensured through privilege, if the regime loses its ability to placate the elite through goods and services, factions opposed to the regime could emerge. Warlordism While the evidence of existing warlords within the North Korean system is speculative at best, the possibility for their creation is real. Most likely, they will emerge within Kim Chongil’s inner core of supporters. As Kim Chong-il continues to isolate his power by narrowing the channels of communication and transferring lines of authority between bureaucracies, he is not only causing deep fractures within the leadership, but also bringing the security forces into conflict with each other. These two outcomes have direct consequences for the elite, who see their access to the Suryong, and the perks associated with that access, threatened. II-S-3
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
Page 13: technocrats, provincial and county
Page 17: PREFACE This paper will examine in
Page 21: ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
Page 24 and 25: information streams, and from him t
Page 26 and 27: within the hands of a few individua
Page 28 and 29: and whether or not he will embarras
Page 30 and 31: to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
Page 32 and 33: strengthening of all armed forces,
Page 34 and 35: esearch institutes and “think tan
Page 36 and 37: The primary missions of the Reconna
Page 38 and 39: communication that generally fall o
Page 40 and 41: of the State Security Department or
Page 42 and 43: maintaining strict control over the
Page 44 and 45: agencies in the ROK and Japan began
Page 46 and 47: The Guard and Security Commands, wh
Page 48 and 49: eports that are funneled up through
Page 50 and 51: Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
Page 52 and 53: Within the military, this dynamic c
Page 54 and 55: him that all significant orders and
Page 56 and 57: Until the 1990s, the electronic med
Page 59: II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
Page 62 and 63: TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
Page 67 and 68: A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
Page 69 and 70: C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
Page 71 and 72: document control bureaus in each mi
Page 73 and 74: Originally implemented in 1994 and
Page 75 and 76: Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
Page 77 and 78: of associates who trace their relat
Page 79 and 80: September 9, 2003, showed a change
Page 81 and 82: Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
Page 83 and 84: Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
Page 85 and 86: Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
Page 87 and 88: Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
Page 89 and 90: chance to unfold. In terms of syste
Page 91 and 92: domestic policy arena, the split is
Page 93 and 94: At the second echelon of power, Kim
Page 95 and 96: D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
Page 97 and 98: about things that affect their care
Page 99 and 100: (ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
Page 101 and 102: For the rest of the North Korean le
Page 103 and 104: the focus for not only a significan
Page 105 and 106: At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
Page 107 and 108: There is little doubt that one of t
Page 109 and 110: decision-making process. Moreover,
Page 111: III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
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greater access to first-hand inform
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The first question addressed by thi
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But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
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as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
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Another way to look at divisions wi
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Because the Kim regime governs acco
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guess is that anyone who rises in t
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But even though the media serve as
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Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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motivation in its readers through m
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Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
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Society is divided into three broad
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contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Internet is not specifically mentio
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led to a training program for young
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North Korea’s exports from legiti
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een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
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worker who travels throughout North
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If we want to reach into North Kore
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conversations with the correct mix
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Although the future of cellular tel
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There are a host of other things on
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Each of the five papers in this col
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promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
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although presumably all calls are m
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cultural rules.” Given the “str
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Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
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Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
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APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
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In any case, the reforms provide a
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View from Seoul The single most imp
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Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION
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