North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From – To) June 2004 Final 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NO. North Korean Policy Elites DASW01-98-C-0067 5b. GRANT NO. 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO(S). 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NO. Kongdan Oh Hassig, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., Kenneth E. Gause, Ralph C. Hassig, Alexandre Y. Mansourov, David J. Smith 5e. TASK NO. BB-6-2376 5f. WORK UNIT NO. 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Institute for Defense Analyses 4850 Mark Center Drive Alexandria, VA 22311-1882 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. IDA Paper P-3903 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR’S / MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Washington, DC 20301 12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 11. SPONSOR’S / MONITOR’S REPORT NO(S). 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT North Korea’s policy-making procedures remain a mystery to foreigners. This report, written by five North Korean specialists, attempts to identify the North Korean elite, any factions existing among them, and the sources of information to which they have access. The authors conclude the dictator Kim Jon-il is firmly in control and that no elite factions exist, thanks to the stringent security measures instituted over the last half century by Kim and his father. However, the potential for the formation of factions exists, especially if domestic economic conditions decline or if Kim’s political succession does not go smoothly. Although access to information about the outside world is severely restricted, the North Korean elite, especially those in the innermost circle, are quite knowledgeable about foreign news affecting them, such as news about U.S. military initiatives in East Asia. However, a legacy of isolation, nationalism, and fear of invasion strongly color how the North Korean elite interpret foreign news. Specifically, U.S. initiatives are invariably viewed with extreme suspicion. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Korea, North Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPRK, leadership, elite, Kim Jong-il, news media, propaganda, communication 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE U U U 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18. NO. OF PAGES 296 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Dr. Bruce Berkowitz 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include Area Code) (703) 528-4475 Standard Form 298 Back (Rev. 8/98)
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
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technocrats, provincial and county
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PREFACE This paper will examine in
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ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
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information streams, and from him t
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within the hands of a few individua
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and whether or not he will embarras
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to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
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strengthening of all armed forces,
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esearch institutes and “think tan
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The primary missions of the Reconna
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communication that generally fall o
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of the State Security Department or
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maintaining strict control over the
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agencies in the ROK and Japan began
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The Guard and Security Commands, wh
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eports that are funneled up through
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Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
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Within the military, this dynamic c
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him that all significant orders and
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Until the 1990s, the electronic med
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II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
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TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
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The factional struggles in North Ko
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A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
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C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
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document control bureaus in each mi
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Originally implemented in 1994 and
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Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
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of associates who trace their relat
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September 9, 2003, showed a change
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Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
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Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
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Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
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Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
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chance to unfold. In terms of syste
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domestic policy arena, the split is
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At the second echelon of power, Kim
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D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
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about things that affect their care
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(ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
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For the rest of the North Korean le
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the focus for not only a significan
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At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
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There is little doubt that one of t
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decision-making process. Moreover,
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III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
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greater access to first-hand inform
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The first question addressed by thi
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But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
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as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
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Another way to look at divisions wi
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Because the Kim regime governs acco
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guess is that anyone who rises in t
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But even though the media serve as
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Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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motivation in its readers through m
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Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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Page 238 and 239: Society is divided into three broad
Page 240 and 241: contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Page 244 and 245: led to a training program for young
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Page 248 and 249: een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
Page 250 and 251: worker who travels throughout North
Page 252 and 253: If we want to reach into North Kore
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Page 256 and 257: Although the future of cellular tel
Page 258 and 259: There are a host of other things on
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Page 267 and 268: cultural rules.” Given the “str
Page 269: Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
Page 273: Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Page 279: APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
Page 282 and 283: In any case, the reforms provide a
Page 284 and 285: View from Seoul The single most imp
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