North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the Kim Il-sung Regime............................................ II-8 2. Kim Family Members in the Central Committee ............................................. II-10 3. Kim Family Members in the Central Committee Leadership........................... II-10 4. Illustrative Relationships in the Kim Chong-il Regime.................................... II-11 5. Leadership Rankings 2000-2003 ...................................................................... II-13 6. Kim Chong-il’s Principal Supporters................................................................ II-19 7. Kim Chong-il’s Personal Apparatus ................................................................. II-21 8. Factional Leanings within the North Korean Elite ........................................... II-26 9. Departments with Direct Ties to Kim Chong-il Apparatus .............................. II-34 10. North Korean Officials with International Experience or Contacts.................. II-37 CHARTS 1. Politburo............................................................................................................ II-14 2. Secretariat ......................................................................................................... II-15 3. Central Committee Apparatus........................................................................... II-15 4. Central Military Commission ........................................................................... II-16 5. National Defense Commission ......................................................................... II-16 6. Military Institutions .......................................................................................... II-17 II-iv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study offers findings of on-going research and analysis of the North Korean leadership. It provides the reader with a theory on the how the North Korean system operates. It discusses the potential for factions among the senior leadership, their interaction with Kim Chong-il, and strategies for maintaining regime stability. The paper also examines the sources of information available to the elite, both in terms of internal and external communications, and efforts to monitor and control access to such information. An effort is also made to describe the lens through which the leadership receives, assimilates, and interprets information. The paper is based in large measure on extensive interviews, conducted by the author over the past decade with a number of North Korean defectors and “Pyongyang watchers,” including former Russian and Chinese diplomats who have served in North Korea, former South Korean officials, journalists, and academics. 1 A. KEY FINDINGS The Technology of Power Since its inception, the North Korean regime has contained strains of indirection and informal channels of authority, which at the same time support and weaken formal regime structures. Like most totalitarian regimes, North Korea has both a formal political structure and an informal one. Traditionally, the formal structure of power has been composed of the party and state apparatuses. The institutions of both the party and state are essentially creations of Kim Chong-il (and his father) and are designed not to limit the Suryong’s (Leader’s) power, but to limit that of his subordinates and potential rivals and to facilitate the consolidation of his own authority. Conflicting lines of authority between party and state provide an ad hoc system of crosschecks and balances. The informal leadership, which includes Kim Chong-il’s apparatus, controls real power by virtue of its proximity to Kim and its controls over the flow of information. This Praetorian Guard is linked to the Great Leader either by blood ties or bonds developed over decades of service to the Kim family. It is this group of loyal servants that Kim relies on to enforce order throughout the system and provide key advice in the decision-making process. 1 The author would like to thank Jee Sun Lee, his research assistant, who assisted him with Korean language sources. Her contribution to this study was invaluable. II-S-1
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
Page 11 and 12: To write accurately about North Kor
Page 13: technocrats, provincial and county
Page 17: PREFACE This paper will examine in
Page 21: ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
Page 24 and 25: information streams, and from him t
Page 26 and 27: within the hands of a few individua
Page 28 and 29: and whether or not he will embarras
Page 30 and 31: to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
Page 32 and 33: strengthening of all armed forces,
Page 34 and 35: esearch institutes and “think tan
Page 36 and 37: The primary missions of the Reconna
Page 38 and 39: communication that generally fall o
Page 40 and 41: of the State Security Department or
Page 42 and 43: maintaining strict control over the
Page 44 and 45: agencies in the ROK and Japan began
Page 46 and 47: The Guard and Security Commands, wh
Page 48 and 49: eports that are funneled up through
Page 50 and 51: Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
Page 52 and 53: Within the military, this dynamic c
Page 54 and 55: him that all significant orders and
Page 56 and 57: Until the 1990s, the electronic med
Page 59: II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
Page 64 and 65: The factional struggles in North Ko
Page 67 and 68: A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
Page 69 and 70: C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
Page 71 and 72: document control bureaus in each mi
Page 73 and 74: Originally implemented in 1994 and
Page 75 and 76: Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
Page 77 and 78: of associates who trace their relat
Page 79 and 80: September 9, 2003, showed a change
Page 81 and 82: Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
Page 83 and 84: Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
Page 85 and 86: Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
Page 87 and 88: Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
Page 89 and 90: chance to unfold. In terms of syste
Page 91 and 92: domestic policy arena, the split is
Page 93 and 94: At the second echelon of power, Kim
Page 95 and 96: D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
Page 97 and 98: about things that affect their care
Page 99 and 100: (ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
Page 101 and 102: For the rest of the North Korean le
Page 103 and 104: the focus for not only a significan
Page 105 and 106: At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
Page 107 and 108: There is little doubt that one of t
Page 109 and 110: decision-making process. Moreover,
Page 111: III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
Page 115 and 116:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
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greater access to first-hand inform
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The first question addressed by thi
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But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
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as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
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Another way to look at divisions wi
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Because the Kim regime governs acco
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guess is that anyone who rises in t
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But even though the media serve as
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Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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motivation in its readers through m
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Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
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Society is divided into three broad
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contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Internet is not specifically mentio
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led to a training program for young
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North Korea’s exports from legiti
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een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
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worker who travels throughout North
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If we want to reach into North Kore
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conversations with the correct mix
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Although the future of cellular tel
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There are a host of other things on
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Each of the five papers in this col
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promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
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although presumably all calls are m
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cultural rules.” Given the “str
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Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
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Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
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APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
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In any case, the reforms provide a
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View from Seoul The single most imp
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