North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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answer. One method of identifying key leaders within the North Korean system is observing the amount of times a person accompanies Kim Chong-il on one of his inspection tours. Because of Kim Chong-il’s reluctance to preside over meetings and due to his preference for behind-thescenes national administration, the role of the Politburo and other traditional centers of power have deteriorated, whereas the positions of those who accompany Kim on his on-the-spot guidance tours (such as members of the Secretariat and military) have been enhanced. The charts below are based on figures gathered by the South Korean Ministry of National Unification. They are divided by institution and portray the number times each member of that institution accompanied Kim Chong-il on one of his guidance tours. They cover the years 2000- 2002. 14 As the charts reveal, members of the National Defense Commission, the KWP Secretariat, and the Central Committee apparatus participated in the most visits. It should be noted, however, that while this methodology is useful in highlighting certain trends within the upper echelons of the leadership, it does not entirely reveal which leaders have real influence. Chart II-1: Politburo Number of Guidance Inspections 20 15 10 5 2000 2001 2002 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Members 1. Pak Sung-chol 8. Choi Tae-bok 2. Kim Yong-nam 9. Yun Hyong-muk 3. Jon Byong-ho 10. Kim Chol-man 4. Kim Young-ju 11. Hong Suk-hyung 14 A thorough breakdown of Kim Chong-il’s appearances for 2003 had not been completed by the time of this paper’s publication, although some conclusions could be made. According to Radio Press, Kim Chong-il made 86 appearances in 2003, falling from 117 in 2002. Those related to military affairs represented 65 percent, as opposed to 27 percent in 2002. Most frequently, he was accompanied by military officials, in contrast to 2002, when party officials mostly accompanied him. Those most frequently reported in his company were as follows: Hyon Cholhae (38), Pak Chae-kyong (35), Yi Mung-su (32), Kim Yong-chun (25), Yi Yong-chul (19), Kim Ki-nam (19), Kim Kuk-tae (17), Kim Yong-sun (16), Choe Chun-hwang (14), Kim Il-chol (13), Chong Song-taek (12). II-14
Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-tae 12. Choi Yong-nim 6. Han Sung-nyong 13. Hong Sung-nam 7. Yang Hyong-sup 14. Yi Son-sil 60 50 Number of Guidance Inspections 40 30 20 10 2000 2001 2002 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Members 1. Han Sung-yong 5. Choi Tae-bok 2. Kye Ung-tae 6. Kim Chung-nim 3. Kim Yong-sun 7. Kim Kuk-tae 4. Chon Pyung-ho 8. Kim Ki-nam Chart II-3: Central Committee Apparatus 40 35 Number of Guidance Inspections 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2000 2001 2002 Members II-15
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
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technocrats, provincial and county
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PREFACE This paper will examine in
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ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
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information streams, and from him t
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within the hands of a few individua
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and whether or not he will embarras
Page 30 and 31: to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
Page 32 and 33: strengthening of all armed forces,
Page 34 and 35: esearch institutes and “think tan
Page 36 and 37: The primary missions of the Reconna
Page 38 and 39: communication that generally fall o
Page 40 and 41: of the State Security Department or
Page 42 and 43: maintaining strict control over the
Page 44 and 45: agencies in the ROK and Japan began
Page 46 and 47: The Guard and Security Commands, wh
Page 48 and 49: eports that are funneled up through
Page 50 and 51: Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
Page 52 and 53: Within the military, this dynamic c
Page 54 and 55: him that all significant orders and
Page 56 and 57: Until the 1990s, the electronic med
Page 59: II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
Page 62 and 63: TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
Page 64 and 65: The factional struggles in North Ko
Page 67 and 68: A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
Page 69 and 70: C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
Page 71 and 72: document control bureaus in each mi
Page 73 and 74: Originally implemented in 1994 and
Page 75 and 76: Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
Page 77 and 78: of associates who trace their relat
Page 79: September 9, 2003, showed a change
Page 83 and 84: Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
Page 85 and 86: Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
Page 87 and 88: Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
Page 89 and 90: chance to unfold. In terms of syste
Page 91 and 92: domestic policy arena, the split is
Page 93 and 94: At the second echelon of power, Kim
Page 95 and 96: D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
Page 97 and 98: about things that affect their care
Page 99 and 100: (ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
Page 101 and 102: For the rest of the North Korean le
Page 103 and 104: the focus for not only a significan
Page 105 and 106: At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
Page 107 and 108: There is little doubt that one of t
Page 109 and 110: decision-making process. Moreover,
Page 111: III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
Page 115 and 116: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
Page 117: greater access to first-hand inform
Page 120 and 121: The first question addressed by thi
Page 122 and 123: But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
Page 124 and 125: as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
Page 126 and 127: Another way to look at divisions wi
Page 128 and 129: Because the Kim regime governs acco
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guess is that anyone who rises in t
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But even though the media serve as
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Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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motivation in its readers through m
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Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
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Society is divided into three broad
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contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Internet is not specifically mentio
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led to a training program for young
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North Korea’s exports from legiti
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een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
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worker who travels throughout North
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If we want to reach into North Kore
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conversations with the correct mix
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Although the future of cellular tel
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There are a host of other things on
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Each of the five papers in this col
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promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
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although presumably all calls are m
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cultural rules.” Given the “str
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Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
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Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
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APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
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In any case, the reforms provide a
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View from Seoul The single most imp
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