North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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E. INSIGHTS FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS In these papers, and in the wrap-up workshop convened at IDA, a good first step has been made toward understanding the elite, factionalism, and communication channels in North Korea. The two major conclusions on which consensus was reached were that Kim Jong-il is the source of political power in North Korea, and that there is no evidence for the existence of factions that actively contest his leadership, although the potential for faction formation exists. Numerous lists of elite members were compiled, and some progress was made in enumerating and explaining the important channels of communication into the country and within the elite. It goes without saying that the validity of evidence about secretive North Korea should be judged on the basis of the reliability of the sources of that evidence. The identification of factions, divisions, or segments of the elite who might respond in their own ways to news of U.S. military initiatives was the more specific focus for this project. It would be a mistake to assume that any divisions among the North Korean elite that might exist are clearly defined or stable entities, such that one party or group automatically responds to a given U.S. initiative in one way while another responds in a different way. This is no more likely to be true than to say that all Republicans respond to a given issue in one way and all Democrats respond in another. How the North Korean elite might divide depends upon the dividing issue. For example, several authors noted that potential factions might form around the issue of who succeeds Kim Jong-il. Other factions may find supporters among those who favor faster rather than slower economic reform. In other words, “All politics is local.” Several other issues raised in these papers deserve further research. One is the question of the current level of North Korea’s technical capability, especially in the IT sector. Does the Kim regime have a national plan for technical education and development that balances the advantages of greater IT expertise with the dangers of losing informational control over the population? In regard to the reception of information originating from the United States, do we have an adequate understanding of North Korean perceptions? For example, do we understand the meaning of their propaganda? When a North Korean government newspaper says that the people are ready to die to defend their land and their leader in the event of a U.S. invasion, should we interpret this as declaration of the strong will of the people, as a bluff, as an expression of fear or xenophobia, or as a regime ploy to rally the people or distract their attention from domestic conditions? VI-8
Speaking of Kim, whom does he consult when making key decisions? There exist many lists of reputed top North Korean elites, but these lists are of limited usefulness without fuller elaboration and analysis. What do we know about the political decision-making culture that exists in North Korea? ROK intelligence and analysis communities have produced perhaps two dozen books on this culture-specific topic, but the subject is not well understood in the U.S. policy community. On a broader level, if the United States desires to understand how its communications affect the North Korean elite., a better understanding of how these communications are perceived is needed. When communicating to North Korea, it is also necessary to take into account how those communications sit with North Korea’s neighbors. It may prove challenging to maintain the U.S.-ROK alliance and other regional relationships while at the same time trying to send clear messages to North Korean elite. VI-9
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
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technocrats, provincial and county
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PREFACE This paper will examine in
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ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
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information streams, and from him t
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within the hands of a few individua
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and whether or not he will embarras
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to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
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strengthening of all armed forces,
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esearch institutes and “think tan
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The primary missions of the Reconna
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communication that generally fall o
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of the State Security Department or
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maintaining strict control over the
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agencies in the ROK and Japan began
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The Guard and Security Commands, wh
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eports that are funneled up through
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Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
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Within the military, this dynamic c
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him that all significant orders and
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Until the 1990s, the electronic med
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II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
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TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
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The factional struggles in North Ko
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A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
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C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
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document control bureaus in each mi
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Originally implemented in 1994 and
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Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
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of associates who trace their relat
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September 9, 2003, showed a change
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Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
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Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
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Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
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Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
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chance to unfold. In terms of syste
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domestic policy arena, the split is
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At the second echelon of power, Kim
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D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
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about things that affect their care
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(ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
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For the rest of the North Korean le
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the focus for not only a significan
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At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
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There is little doubt that one of t
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decision-making process. Moreover,
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III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
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greater access to first-hand inform
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The first question addressed by thi
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But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
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as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
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Another way to look at divisions wi
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Because the Kim regime governs acco
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guess is that anyone who rises in t
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But even though the media serve as
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Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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motivation in its readers through m
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Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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Page 220 and 221: Northern security, military, and pa
Page 223: APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
Page 227: V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
Page 231 and 232: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
Page 233: message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
Page 236 and 237: isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
Page 238 and 239: Society is divided into three broad
Page 240 and 241: contradictions.” 17 This makes se
Page 242 and 243: Internet is not specifically mentio
Page 244 and 245: led to a training program for young
Page 246 and 247: North Korea’s exports from legiti
Page 248 and 249: een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
Page 250 and 251: worker who travels throughout North
Page 252 and 253: If we want to reach into North Kore
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Page 256 and 257: Although the future of cellular tel
Page 258 and 259: There are a host of other things on
Page 261 and 262: Each of the five papers in this col
Page 263 and 264: promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
Page 265 and 266: although presumably all calls are m
Page 267: cultural rules.” Given the “str
Page 273: Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
Page 277 and 278: Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
Page 279: APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
Page 282 and 283: In any case, the reforms provide a
Page 284 and 285: View from Seoul The single most imp
Page 287: Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION
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