North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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Gause, Kim Jong-il, through his personal secretary Kim Kang-chol, has a “dedicated personal apparatus to assist him in gathering information about the outside world. This apparatus is not consolidated, but spread throughout the regime, with tentacles that reach into a variety of party, state, and military institutions.” “In addition to reports prepared by their staffs, some North Korean leaders have developed some dedicated channels for additional information. This is done through personal contacts and alliances formed with one or another bureaucracy. Leaders also seek to reach accommodations with various counterintelligence organizations for both reasons of political survival and to protect private ventures, which, if discovered, could lead to allegations of corruption.” Gause identifies the primary sources of external information as MOFA intelligence from the embassies, and overseas “correspondents.” Hassig surveys the content of North Korea’s domestic print and electronic media, which are available to all the elite. He also lists the various foreign radio sources that broadcast into the country, such as Radio Free Asia. Although the dials of North Korean radios are supposed to be fixed to the government station frequency, many North Koreans unfix these dials, putting themselves at risk of arrest; higher-level cadres apparently listen to such radios without much danger of being caught or punished. Other than official communication channels, the only secure way news can be disseminated within the country is by face-to-face contact, and according to defectors, such communication must be conducted with some discretion. Hassig’s major emphasis is on how the elite could acquire news of U.S. military initiatives. He conducts an informal survey that demonstrates the impressive breadth of knowledge on this subject that is carried by North Korea’s two major domestic news outlets: Nodong Sinmun and the Korean Central Broadcasting Station. He concludes that if the North Korean elite pay attention to these channels, they are better informed about U.S. military initiatives in Asia than are most well-educated Americans. D. HOW IS FOREIGN INFORMATION PERCEIVED? Whatever their access to foreign information, the North Korean elite will surely perceive such information in their own unique way, and draw their own conclusions. For example, all North Koreans heard about the October 2000 visit to Pyongyang of Secretary of State Albright, but what did it mean to them? Was it seen as a gesture of peace or as a visit by a representative of a declining power to pay homage to the memory of Great Leader Kim Il-sung (whose tomb she visited)? The interpretation of information is likely to be shaped in several ways. Bermudez speaks of a four-layered “darkly colored lens” filtering information flowing to Kim Jong-il and the top elites: “historical world view, political indoctrination, hatred for the U.S., and authoritarian VI-6
cultural rules.” Given the “strong underpinning of Confucian philosophy” in North Korean society, subordinates are loath to present any information that is at variance with what they think their superiors believe. This attitude helps explain distortions that appear to creep into communications. Bermudez describes the flow of information as “convoluted - almost Byzantine at times - as it moves through a series of paths control[led] by different and competing organizations with diverse agendas and priorities in a manner that is quite frequently redundant and inefficient.” Gause suggests two more causes of information distortion: “Information necessary to run the day-to-day affairs of the North Korean regime is highly compartmentalized and frequently monitored. This leads to a system of half knowledge and an illusion of being informed.” News to Kim Jong-il is said to be “sanitized,” with “unpleasing news glossed over.” Hassig begins his discussion of information interpretation by introducing several communication concepts that describe how people interpret information in light of their existing knowledge, and he notes that only a highly credible source of information can change a person’s core beliefs. Years of anti-American propaganda have presumably made North Koreans highly skeptical of U.S. initiatives. The growing global anti-American sentiment, a favorite topic of the North Korean press, simply reinforces this hostility and skepticism. Hassig’s survey of news stories illustrates the negative spin that the North Korean press inevitably gives to U.S. initiatives. The elite, who are in possession of more information than are ordinary North Korean citizens, may well experience cognitive dissonance as they try to reconcile official dogma with received news or observed fact. But the dual forces of loyalty to the Kim regime and Korean nationalism are likely to resolve many cognitive discrepancies in favor of the official North Korean line. In particular, news of U.S. initiatives that seek to overturn the North Korean status quo is likely to be viewed with disfavor by those elite who have a stake in the Kim regime. Given these problems with interpretation, Hassig believes that the issue of how to craft messages targeted at the North Korean elite is more important than the issue of what channels to put the messages in. In his discussion of communication channels, Smith identifies three “impediments to communication”: fear of punishment, physical impediments, and cognitive impediments. The fear comes from the danger of accessing forbidden foreign news. The physical impediments derive from North Korea’s physical isolation and restricted communication infrastructure. One cognitive impediment is doubt: “some North Koreans surely harbor doubts about their system, but they have no intellectual framework in which to consider alternatives.” VI-7
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
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To write accurately about North Kor
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technocrats, provincial and county
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PREFACE This paper will examine in
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ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
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information streams, and from him t
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within the hands of a few individua
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and whether or not he will embarras
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to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
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strengthening of all armed forces,
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esearch institutes and “think tan
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The primary missions of the Reconna
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communication that generally fall o
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of the State Security Department or
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maintaining strict control over the
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agencies in the ROK and Japan began
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The Guard and Security Commands, wh
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eports that are funneled up through
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Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
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Within the military, this dynamic c
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him that all significant orders and
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Until the 1990s, the electronic med
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II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
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TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
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The factional struggles in North Ko
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A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
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C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
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document control bureaus in each mi
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Originally implemented in 1994 and
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Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
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of associates who trace their relat
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September 9, 2003, showed a change
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Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
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Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
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Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
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Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
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chance to unfold. In terms of syste
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domestic policy arena, the split is
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At the second echelon of power, Kim
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D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
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about things that affect their care
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(ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
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For the rest of the North Korean le
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the focus for not only a significan
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At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
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There is little doubt that one of t
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decision-making process. Moreover,
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III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
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greater access to first-hand inform
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The first question addressed by thi
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But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
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as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
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Another way to look at divisions wi
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Because the Kim regime governs acco
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guess is that anyone who rises in t
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But even though the media serve as
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Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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motivation in its readers through m
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Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Page 223: APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
Page 227: V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
Page 231 and 232: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
Page 233: message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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Page 238 and 239: Society is divided into three broad
Page 240 and 241: contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Page 244 and 245: led to a training program for young
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Page 269: Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
Page 273: Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Page 279: APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
Page 282 and 283: In any case, the reforms provide a
Page 284 and 285: View from Seoul The single most imp
Page 287: Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION
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