North Korean Policy Elites - Defense Technical Information Center

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Within the military, this dynamic can be illustrated by how the Military Training Bureau evaluated U.S. operations against Iraq during Operations DESERT STORM and IRAQI FREEDOM. According to defectors, 32 international news broadcasts concerning Operation DESERT STORM were taped and “Videos of the Gulf War were watched everyday in the Operations Office, and assessments of the military power of the United States and the multinational forces, and studies of their strategy and tactics, were reassessed from new angles.” In one of those paradoxes that are so common when dealing with the DPRK, the same defector indicated that what they witnessed in the videos was shocking, yet they concluded “…the Gulf War was, in short...“child’s play.” Should [the DPRK] face such circumstances, they concluded, it could easily deal with the United States and the multinational forces. The reasons for this were that: unlike in the past, a US-led military block, even if it is formed, would be unable to act without the consent of its allies; in the event of another Korean war, neighboring powers would not go along with the US position as they did in the Gulf War; [the DPRK’s] symmetry in conventional and high-tech weapons; and [the DPRK’s] new confidence in electronic warfare.” Other defectors recount that following Operation DESERT STORM, officers above the level of regimental commander were required to watch videotapes of the war to familiarize themselves with U.S. tactics. The videotapes, however, had a negative effect upon the commanders, who realized that modern war depends on modern weapons and that the weapons possessed by the KPA were obsolete. More recently, during the buildup to and early combat phases of Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, Kim Chong-il is reported to have gone into seclusion for 50 days beginning in mid- February and extending to the end of March. He even missed the traditional opening ceremonies of the Supreme People’s Assembly in P’yongyang. The general assessment of this behavior was that Kim and probably the DPRK intelligence community interpreted media reports concerning U.S. intentions and subsequent attempts to decapitate the Iraqi leadership and the U.S. deployment of additional bombers and combat aircraft to East Asia as indications that Kim might also be the target of a similar decapitation attack. Yet, no such attack was contemplated by the United States. 33 32 33 “Ex-DPRK Major Unveils KPA Military Plan,” Pukhan, February 1, 2000, pp. 92-99; and “Anti-Kim Front: DPRK Military May Revolt,” Chugan Choson, December 2, 1993, pp. 32-34, as cited in FBIS-EAS-94-028. “Kim Jong II Reportedly Feared Being Next Target,” Houston Chronicle, May 12, 2003, p. 12. I-28
D. SUMMARY Simply stated, all power within the DPRK originates with Kim Chong-il, who is simultaneously Chairman of the National Defense Commission, General Secretary of the KWP, and Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army. Therefore, what really matters within the DPRK is not so much an individual’s schooling, personal achievements, job, position within society, rank within the military, etc. but how close - physically and emotionally - that individual is connected to Kim Chong-il. The closer an individual is, the more power that person wields, and the greater access to uncensored and foreign information he has. The military elite within the DPRK should be understood to contain not only those individuals within the National Defense Commission holding military rank but also those military personnel situated within the broader power-holding elite. From an organizational standpoint, this would include the MPAF leadership and extend down to the commanders of the Guard Command, Security Command, General Rear Services Bureau, General Staff Department, Korean People’s Navy Command, Korean People’s Air and Air Defense Command, Corps, and a small number of the General Staff Department’s major bureaus (e.g., Reconnaissance Bureau). It also includes some of those high-ranking military personnel located with various government, intelligence, and internal security organizations. In fact, a significant number of the military, and to a lesser extent power-holding, elite occupy multiple leadership positions within the MPAF, KWP, and the intelligence and internal security organizations. The ever increasing use of the Internet, national intranet, and cell phones by the military and power-holding elite presents new dynamics in the process by which information is accessed and flows within the DPRK. While attempting to restrict access to the Internet, the DPRK leadership unmistakably understands the decisive importance of the information available concerning world affairs and its contribution to bolstering national survival. This need to access information on the Internet appears to be insatiable and has resulted in the creation of a subclass of Internet-, technology-, and information-savvy soldiers and citizens who are younger than the leadership they support and who know more about the world they live in. They almost certainly understand that the world has more to offer than what they presently have. Just as fax machines and computer bulletin boards in China during the late 1980s proved to be essential tools among young democracy seekers, the Internet has the potential to be an equally powerful tool for change within the DPRK during the next 10 to 15 years. This potential is something that should be attentively observed and nurtured as best as is possible. Information flow within the DPRK can best be described as “Kim-centric” - vertical and convoluted. That is, it is towards Kim Chong-il that all important information streams, and from I-29
Page 1 and 2: INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Nort
Page 3: INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA
Page 7: CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INTROD
Page 11 and 12: To write accurately about North Kor
Page 13: technocrats, provincial and county
Page 17: PREFACE This paper will examine in
Page 21: ABBREVIATIONS AGI CCSKA COMSEC DoD
Page 24 and 25: information streams, and from him t
Page 26 and 27: within the hands of a few individua
Page 28 and 29: and whether or not he will embarras
Page 30 and 31: to the lowest-levels of the KPA. As
Page 32 and 33: strengthening of all armed forces,
Page 34 and 35: esearch institutes and “think tan
Page 36 and 37: The primary missions of the Reconna
Page 38 and 39: communication that generally fall o
Page 40 and 41: of the State Security Department or
Page 42 and 43: maintaining strict control over the
Page 44 and 45: agencies in the ROK and Japan began
Page 46 and 47: The Guard and Security Commands, wh
Page 48 and 49: eports that are funneled up through
Page 50 and 51: Complicating the entire “Kim-cent
Page 54 and 55: him that all significant orders and
Page 56 and 57: Until the 1990s, the electronic med
Page 59: II. THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP: SY
Page 62 and 63: TABLES 1. Key Family Members in the
Page 64 and 65: The factional struggles in North Ko
Page 67 and 68: A. INTRODUCTION By definition, a to
Page 69 and 70: C. THE TECHNOLOGY OF POWER A Party
Page 71 and 72: document control bureaus in each mi
Page 73 and 74: Originally implemented in 1994 and
Page 75 and 76: Table II-1. Key Family Members in t
Page 77 and 78: of associates who trace their relat
Page 79 and 80: September 9, 2003, showed a change
Page 81 and 82: Chart II-2: Secretariat 5. Kye Ung-
Page 83 and 84: Members 1. Yi Ul-sul 4. Yi Yong-mu
Page 85 and 86: Table II-6. Kim Chong-il’s Princi
Page 87 and 88: Table II-7. Kim Chong-il’s Person
Page 89 and 90: chance to unfold. In terms of syste
Page 91 and 92: domestic policy arena, the split is
Page 93 and 94: At the second echelon of power, Kim
Page 95 and 96: D. FLOW OF INFORMATION George Kenna
Page 97 and 98: about things that affect their care
Page 99 and 100: (ID) and External Liaison (ELD) dep
Page 101 and 102: For the rest of the North Korean le
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the focus for not only a significan
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At the 11 th Supreme People’s Ass
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There is little doubt that one of t
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decision-making process. Moreover,
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III. THE WELL-INFORMED CADRE RALPH
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEFINITIONS AND A
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greater access to first-hand inform
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The first question addressed by thi
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But this lack of enthusiasm is prob
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as the 1950s. 16 The security organ
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Another way to look at divisions wi
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Because the Kim regime governs acco
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guess is that anyone who rises in t
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But even though the media serve as
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Newspapers The DPRK’s premier new
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motivation in its readers through m
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Page 2: • Kim Jong-suk’s develo
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This selection of news items presen
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in the wake of the U.S. propaganda
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the general audience in a two-step
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also countries surrounding the Kore
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that the war in Iraq was “a test
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and transform us internally through
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eceived with little thought and has
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outside world than the ordinary wor
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cognitive dissonance, particular ca
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IV. INSIDE NORTH KOREA’S BLACK BO
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Korean
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A. BETTER, MERRIER, MORE HOPEFUL LI
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In contrast, the optimists believe
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to the throne. The State Council us
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1976-1977, 4 and in 1986-1987 (see
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Bulgarian Trade Unions, after which
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Second, the principal objective of
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southward expansion, and, last but
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controlling some of North Korea’s
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also against the second-tier family
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Kim Sung-ae, who is Kim Il Sung’s
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“National Security Establishment
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October 1980. Many of them (Yon Hyo
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severe draught in 1988 and the dram
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The advent of the “Songun Era”
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IV-30
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Bearing in mind Kim Jong Il’s rec
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Table IV-2. Composition of the Nort
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Cabinet Posts 10 th SPA 11 th SPA R
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Eastern Europe. That was reportedly
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Table IV-5. Leading Ideologues Insi
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Table IV-7. Regional Origins of Top
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“Foreign Wind” The “foreign w
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Table IV-10. Some of the Most Influ
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Table IV-11. The North-South “Han
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Song Sok Hwan Vice-Minister Cha Sun
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Table IV-13. Korean-American “Int
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content and government monitoring.
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Northern security, military, and pa
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APPENDIX B TONGIL STREET FREE MARKE
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V. REACHING INTO NORTH KOREA DAVID
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY North Korea is no
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message right to Kim Jong-il, and m
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isk escape from the hermit kingdom.
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Society is divided into three broad
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contradictions.” 17 This makes se
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Internet is not specifically mentio
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led to a training program for young
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North Korea’s exports from legiti
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een the biggest buyers of ivory ove
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worker who travels throughout North
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If we want to reach into North Kore
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conversations with the correct mix
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Although the future of cellular tel
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There are a host of other things on
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Each of the five papers in this col
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promotions) and punishments (e.g.,
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although presumably all calls are m
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cultural rules.” Given the “str
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Speaking of Kim, whom does he consu
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Terms of Reference: North Korean Po
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Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is an intern
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APPENDIX C ASIAN VIEWS OF NORTH KOR
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In any case, the reforms provide a
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View from Seoul The single most imp
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Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION
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