africa

Yale Center for the Study of Globalization
effect was no doubt central to the growth success of many East Asian economies
in the latter half of the 20 th century, with some observers attributing as much as
one-third of East Asia’s “economic miracle” to this effect (Bloom and others, 2000). 4
In Africa too, demographic changes have the potential to fuel economic growth, by
providing both a source of labor and an emerging consumer class. Viewing Africa
as the world’s largest untapped market, some observers estimate that African consumption
will reach US$1 trillion by 2020 (Hatch and others, 2012).
But the East Asian experience has also shown that a demographic dividend is not
a sufficient condition for long-term growth. One of the key elements of the East
Asian success story was the supply of a highly skilled and well trained labor force:
from 1966 to 1991, the proportion of the working-age population with a secondary
or higher education doubled in Hong Kong and Taiwan, tripled in Korea, and quadrupled
in Singapore (Young, 1995). A large part of the East Asian growth was built
around this base of highly skilled workers. For African countries to harness their
growth potential, they must identify the skill needs of their economies and develop
the capacities to address them. Only then will young workers be more productively
employed and contribute to a high-growth economy, instead of being trapped in
low-value-adding, low-wage employment.
Since the 2007-08 financial crisis, the growth performance of SSA has been strong,
and the growth prediction for 2013 is 5 percent (World Bank, 2013b). In recent years,
a number of African countries have been some of the fastest-growing countries in
the world, albeit in many cases from a very low base.
Although economic growth is supported by strong domestic demand, the value of
commodity exports continues to be an integral component of the region’s growth
dynamics. Oil, metal, and other minerals exports increased from US$56 billion in
2002 to US$288 billion in 2012, and together accounted for more two-thirds of
Africa’s total export growth during this period (World Bank, 2013b). The commodity
boom of the last decade has underpinned much of Africa’s impressive growth
performance but also leaves the region more vulnerable to commodity price shocks.
Economic literature has for a long time cautioned against the developing countries’
“resource curse.” However, more recent evidence seems to suggest that this curse
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