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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?<br />

productivity it will not be enough to increase yields per hectare through modern seeds<br />

cultivated with sufficient fertilizer. Rather, a multiplicity of other policy interventions<br />

would have to be implemented, ranging from lowering transport costs—through<br />

deregulation and better infrastructure—to expanding credit in rural areas and making<br />

reliable and low-cost energy available to agricultural producers.<br />

Dryden agrees that the goal must be to have sustainable and substantial productivity<br />

gains in African agriculture, as an indispensable condition to keep high rates of<br />

economic growth, achieve an inclusive economic transformation, create jobs for<br />

the youth, and enable dramatic poverty reduction. Based on the work done by the<br />

remarkable Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, he submits that the right strategy<br />

to pursue that goal must focus on smallholder farmers; key geographies; key staple<br />

crops and livestock; identification, diffusion, and adoption of key technologies and<br />

practices; and the development of comprehensive regional food systems comprising<br />

both the demand and supply sides of the agricultural supply chain.<br />

Omiti and his co-author, too, believe in the importance of looking at entire agri-food<br />

systems rather than paying attention only to the supply aspects of food production.<br />

A holistic approach requires actions comprising natural resources, social networks,<br />

and maintenance of diversity in genetic resources and farming techniques, as well<br />

as policies that create conditions for effective governance. Furthermore, in their<br />

view, special attention should be dedicated to policies aimed to reduce drastically<br />

food losses and food waste. Globally around one third of the food produced in the<br />

world is lost or wasted.<br />

Quite pertinently, Udry warns analysts and policymakers about the pitfalls of following<br />

rigidly general prescriptions when pursuing higher yields and productivity in the<br />

African agricultural sector. Reporting on several randomized controlled experiments<br />

to provide support to small African farmers, he concludes that interventions, to be<br />

successful, must take into account heterogeneity on the ground—and also that proposed<br />

interventions must be tested before being widely applied. A corollary of that<br />

conclusion is that large-scale programs that are introduced from above and purely<br />

state-led are likely to fail. The experiments reported by Udry do provide however<br />

strong support for the validity of a general proposition: that markets with prices, and<br />

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