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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?<br />

Figure 16.5: Factors Most Negatively Affecting Lead Firms in Their Decision<br />

to Include a Developing Country in Their Value Chain<br />

Source: OECD-WTO (2013b).<br />

At the same time, as suggested by Figure 16.3 above, the pay-offs for improvement<br />

of these factors are higher in Africa than anywhere else in the world, reinforcing<br />

hopes that capacity-building efforts in Africa will result in even faster growth and<br />

global trade integration than in other regions.<br />

16.4.2 Value chain resilience and external risks<br />

GVCs have made international trade more volatile (Escaith and others, 2010): the<br />

2008-09 crisis revealed a higher trade elasticity and exposure to imported crises<br />

through trade. The 2011 triple disaster in Japan—earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear<br />

accident—had severe effects not only on the Japanese economy but also on the<br />

world economy, through disruptions in global production chains, particularly in sectors<br />

such as automotive, computers, and consumer electronics in which downstream<br />

producers rely heavily on Japanese suppliers of specialized parts and components<br />

(New York Times, 2011). As a quasi-monopoly supplier of key technological products<br />

for the electronics and automotive industries, Japan has a strategic position at the<br />

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