africa

Yale Center for the Study of Globalization
trend line is insignificant for the OECD sample, it is negative and significant for the
Africa sample, showing that there has been a significant decline in the number of
growth reversals in Africa over the sample period.
Figure 29.2: Growth Reversals in OECD and African Countries, 1960-2010
Source: Authors’ Calculations
29.4 Instigators of growth reversals in Africa
A review of the literature indicates that the traditional determinants of long-term
growth are not always typical determinants of GRs or growth accelerations, and that
variables like physical and human capital from traditional economic growth models
are not always major explanatory variables (see for instance Hausmann, Pritchett,
and Rodrik, 2005). A variety of mechanisms seem to be driving growth reversals
and growth accelerations as well as sustaining growth once it has begun. Jones
and Olken (2005), for instance, find that increased trade is responsible for growth
accelerations, whereas reversals are associated with reduced manufacturing and
investment. Tsangarides (2012) finds that the determinants are different for an Africa
sample than a rest-of-the-world sample, although the effects of an African dummy
remain insignificant in the world sample. Droughts and openness to trade are more
important in determining Africa’s growth accelerations, while investment, education,
and the US interest rate are among the common determinants in both samples.
Institutional measures have also often been identified as playing a role in accelerations
and reversals. Cuberes and Jerzmanowski (2012) find that increased democracy is
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