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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Dang, Hai-Anh, Steve Knack, and Halsey Rogers, 2009. “International Aid and Financial Crises in Donor Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper No. 5162. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. de Mello, Luiz, Jr., 1999. “Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data,” Oxford Economic Papers 51(1): 133-51. Elbadawi, Ibrahim, and Francis Mwega, 1997. “Regional Integration, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa.” In Zubair Iqbal and Mohsin Khan (eds.), Trade Reform and Regional Integration in Africa. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. Fields, Gary, 2000. “The Employment Problem in South Africa.” Mimeo. Gylfason, T., and G. Zoega, 2006. “Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment,” The World Economy 29: 1091-1115. Lipsey, Robert E., and Fredrik Sjoholm, 2001. “Foreign Direct Investment and Wages in Indonesian Manufacturing.” NBER Working Paper No. 8299. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), 2010. NEPAD Framework Document. October. Available at: http://www.nepad.org/nepad/knowledge/ doc/1767/nepad-framework-document United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 2002. World Investment Report: Transnational Corporations and Export Competitiveness. New York and Geneva: United Nations. ______, 2007. World Investment Report: Transnational Corporations, Extractive Industries, and Development. Geneva: UNCTAD. ______, 2008. World Investment Report: Transnational Corporations and the Infrastructure Challenge. Geneva: UNCTAD. ______, 2009. World Investment Prospect Survey. Geneva: UNCTAD. United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011. Data available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 412
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? World Bank, 2011. World Development Indicators. CD-Rom. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Endnotes 1 For example, world energy consumption increased from 375×10 15 quadrillion Btu in 1996 to about 472×10 15 in 2006, and is expected to increase to 596×10 15 quadrillion Btu in 2020. The rise in oil demand was driven mainly by China and India (EIA, 2011). 2 The world price of crude oil increased by about 185 percent from 2002-07 (UNCTAD, 2008). Also, the median after-tax profits as a share of revenue of Global 500 companies increased from about 2 percent in 2002 to about 6 percent in 2006. In contrast, the share of profits of Global 500 companies in extractive industries increased from 5 percent to about 26 percent over the same period (UNCTAD, 2008). 3 See Tullow’s annual report for more information; http://www.tullowoil.com/files/reports/ar2009/ 4 There was no production in South America in 2008 and 2009 although the company spent £12 million in 2008 and £7 million in 2009 on exploration in the region. 5 In countries such as Kuwait, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, oil is produced solely by domestic firms— there is no production by foreign firms. 6 Asiedu and others (2011) find an inverse relationship between natural resource export intensity and FDI. They assert that natural resources increase FDI in natural resources, but reduce non-resourcerelated FDI, and that the crowding out is more than one-for-one. 7 Discussion has increased among policymakers, international organizations, and academics about finding ways for countries in SSA to avoid the resource curse. The 2013 annual publications of the three top international organizations in Africa focused on natural resource management. These organizations are the African Capacity Building Foundation, African Development Bank, and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. 8 We borrow the term “FDI-natural resource curse” from Asiedu and others (2011). 9 Remittances are becoming an important source of finance. However, to keep the discussion focused this paper focuses on FDI. 10 We are conjecturing because data on FDI flows by sector are not readily available for countries in SSA. 11 See Asiedu and others (2009) for a detailed description of the data on institutional quality and country risk. 12 See Gylfason and Zoega (2006) for a survey of the literature. 13 This section draws heavily from Asiedu (2006). 14 An example of a successful regional bloc in SSA is the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Countries in the SADC are Angola, Botswana, Congo Dem. Rep., Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Elbadawi and Mwega (1997) find evidence that after controlling for relevant country conditions, countries in the SADC region receive more FDI than other countries in Africa. 413
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AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
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Acknowledgements This volume is the
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2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
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3. Industrialization: The Good Road
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PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
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6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
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PART III The Governance Factor
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12. The Political Origins of Africa
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14. Corruption in Africa: Shifting
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16. Global Value Chains and “Serv
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19. The Role of Aid in a Changing A
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PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
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26.5 Moving forward Africa’s mixe
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27. Smallholders Hold the Keys to A
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