africa

Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?
Figure 12.10: Sources of Growth, With/Without Electoral Competition
12.5 A causal chain?
On the basis of the evidence thus far, it appears possible that changes in Africa’s
political institutions led to changes in policy choices, and that the latter altered
incentives, enticing producers in the rural sector and in the economy as a whole to
make more efficient use of the factors of production.
Before this argument warrants our credence, however, we must take two additional
steps. First, a line of reasoning must be advanced. It is plausible, of course, that policies
that impose costs on producers will weaken economic incentives and lower the
rate of growth of TFP. But why should changes in political institutions elicit changes
in public policies? In this section, we address this question and seek thereby to
strengthen the foundations of our argument. In addition, we need to move from the
bivariate to multivariate analysis and so gain the ability to identify our causal argument.
We take that second step in Section 12.6 below.
12.5.1 In agriculture
Why might the movement from authoritarian government to party competition lead to
changes in agricultural policy? In both authoritarian and competitive political systems,
private interests influence the government’s choice of policies. But the process of
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