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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Figure 29.11: Total Fertility Rate, Africa and Selected Countries, 1960-2010 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, 2013. While Africa’s decline in TFR is unprecedented, the rate remains high, and the decline slow, compared to countries that have achieved rapid development. 29.7 Conclusions and policy issues This study has examined whether the recent growth recorded in Africa is sustainable. The findings show that improved democracy reduces growth reversals in Africa, and that the effects in exporters of non-fuel primary products are the same as those in exporters of oil. The effects differ for autocratic countries. In bigger economies, improved democracy is found to increase the likelihood of growth reversals. The results for improved democracy differ from those for changes in political stability, implying that increased democracy in a politically unstable country does not reduce the likelihood of growth reversals. The findings also show that economic instability does not dampen the effects of democracy on growth reversals, implying that democracy cushions the economy from reversals during episodes of economic instability 514
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? The results also show that increased episodes of civil war increase growth reversals in Africa on average and in authoritarian regimes, but they show no significant impact in oil exporting countries or in countries that are exporters of non-fuel primary products. Civil war is the variable that makes the largest contribution to growth reversals in Africa. Economic instability in itself has no significant effects on growth reversals in Africa, but it reduces growth reversals in democratic countries among developing countries in general. Analyses of the other predictors of growth reversals in Africa show that higher GDP per capita (as a measure of the size of the economy) increases growth reversals. This is the case in oil exporting and non-fuel primary product exporting countries, but not in autocratic regimes. Further, the results show that having a population with more years of higher education reduces growth reversals in Africa. Improved higher education is found to be the greatest contributor to reductions in growth reversals. Primary education has no effect on the likelihood of a country experiencing growth reversals, except in countries with autocratic regimes—implying that these countries have less educated populations than their democratic counterparts, so that an increase in education even at the basic level would help to make growth more sustainable. Higher education levels are more important for oil and natural resources exporters than for exporters of non-fuel primary products, underscoring that the resource-rich economies tend to have less educated populations. On economic diversification, the results show that increased value addition in manufacturing increases growth reversals in Africa at large, and among oil exporters and autocratic regimes, but not in non-fuel primary products exporters. This pattern may imply that increased diversification into manufacturing introduces vulnerabilities associated with lack of export competitiveness that negatively affect growth. We also find that increased openness to trade has no significant effect on growth in Africa except in exporters of non-fuel primary products; a result mainly attributable to the high proportion of primary exports in the total exports of Africa. An increased age dependency ratio is found to increase growth reversals in Africa both as a whole and among exporters of non-fuel primary products. 515
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AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
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Yale Center for the Study of Global
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Acknowledgements This volume is the
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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
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2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
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3. Industrialization: The Good Road
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PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
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6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
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8. Avoiding an African Spring: Conf
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9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge Haroon
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PART III The Governance Factor
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12. The Political Origins of Africa
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14. Corruption in Africa: Shifting
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16. Global Value Chains and “Serv
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17. Better Global Governance for a
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19. The Role of Aid in a Changing A
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PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
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21. Past the Resource Curse: The
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A main improvement has involved eco
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23. Foreign Direct Investment, Natu
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24. Tanzania: Turning Natural Gas i
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