africa

24. Tanzania: Turning Natural
Gas into Sustained Growth
Christopher Adam
Oxford University
Introduction
Despite its abundance of natural capital, Tanzania is rarely thought of as a classical
resource-rich or natural-resource-dependent economy. But with new natural
gas discoveries in its territorial waters of the Indian Ocean, questions of resource
dependence and the attendant challenges have, almost overnight, come to dominate
the national debate and national sensibilities. The issue is already beginning
to alter how Tanzanians view their country and its prospects. As recently as 2010, at
the request of the President, the national Planning Commission undertook a review
of the Tanzania Development Vision 2025, which had been launched at the turn
of the new Millennium, and developed a Long-Term Perspective Plan. The review
was duly completed and the Vision re-launched in 2012. But less than three years
on, the new Vision and Plan already look shockingly out of date: they make hardly
a mention of the gas sector beyond reference to the small onshore fields that have
existed for some two decades, and no mention of how the discovery of the huge
fields of offshore natural gas might reshape the economics and political economy
of Tanzania. This is no criticism of the Planning Commission but rather a recognition
of how rapidly these discoveries have changed the frame of reference for the
economic policy debate in Tanzania to the point that almost every conversation in
Tanzania—in government, civil society, and on the street—is now about the natural
gas finds and how the anticipated surge in national wealth will transform the country.
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