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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Figure 29.7: Trade Volumes in Africa, 1994-2014 Source: www.unctad.org | Trade and Development Report, 2013. It is important therefore that a faster pace of trade liberalization be accompanied by diversification into manufacturing and at the same time improved competitiveness of manufactured exports. Analyses of the impacts of demography on growth reversals in Africa show that, as expected, a reduction in the age dependency ratio (the number of elderly and young people as a proportion of the working-age population) reduces growth reversals in Africa on average and in countries that are exporters of non-fuel primary products. As shown in Figure 29.8, the age dependency ratio has fallen in Africa dramatically and consistently since 1990. While a low dependency ratio offers an opportunity for a “demographic dividend,” as enjoyed by Asia from the 1960s and 1970s onwards, it does not guarantee it. As the labor force swells relative to the population, it is crucial for African economies to be able to provide jobs for the new workers. 512
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? Figure 29.10: Age Dependency Ratio in Africa, 1960-2010 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, 2013. While there is change in key demographic variables, in particular by African standards, there remains a long way to go. Figure 29.11 examines the total fertility rate (TFR) in Africa and a number of other developing countries together with South Korea, which saw a dramatic change in its demographic structure as it grew rapidly to become a developed nation. 513
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AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
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Yale Center for the Study of Global
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Acknowledgements This volume is the
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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
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2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
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3. Industrialization: The Good Road
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PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
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6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
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8. Avoiding an African Spring: Conf
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9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge Haroon
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PART III The Governance Factor
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12. The Political Origins of Africa
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14. Corruption in Africa: Shifting
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16. Global Value Chains and “Serv
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17. Better Global Governance for a
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19. The Role of Aid in a Changing A
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PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
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21. Past the Resource Curse: The
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A main improvement has involved eco
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23. Foreign Direct Investment, Natu
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24. Tanzania: Turning Natural Gas i
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