africa

Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?
Figure 26.8 presents the growth of total agricultural value added over 2000-10
against growth in area and yield, respectively. Both graphs show strong positive
correlations, although with significant outliers. Note that growth in total agricultural
value added and growth in agricultural value added per worker have a correlation
coefficient of 0.91 over the period, so the graphs look very similar when the vertical
axis is replaced with the value-added-per-worker variable.
Figure 26.8: Relationship between Growth in Agricultural Value Added and
Growth in Area and Yield, Selected African Countries, 2000-10
Source: Author’s calculations based on FAO, 2014 and World Bank, 2014.
The marginal effects of growing “up” versus “out” need to be appreciated in the
context of finite supplies of land, plus the deforestation, biodiversity loss, and soil
nutrient loss that are typically associated with extensification. In countries with high
population density, like Burundi and Rwanda, there is limited room for expansion
and farm sizes are already among the smallest in the world. There is therefore an
asymmetry in the desirability of growth in yields as opposed to area planted, with
yield increases often offering a more environmentally and socially sound path.
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