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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Figure 16.9: The “Pagoda” Effect: Impact On Value Addition in Africa When Markets Shift to the South Source: Author. 16.5 A new hope: The “double leap” There is no guarantee that the opportunities will outweigh the risks, and that Africa will be better off in the new economic order where GVCs rule international business and trade relations—particularly if governments and donors continue to apply old recipes to fix new problems, and disregard the changes in global trade and development paradigms. For example, an excessive focus on industrialization could lead to greater delays in the development process if emerging countries like China continue to be competitive in the middle ground, blocking African economies’ upgrading prospects. Diversification could take place within value chains. Figure 16.10 provides the example of the fruit and vegetable value chain: African countries need to move from the production stage to all the other stages of the chain to capture more value. In most value chains, this means diversifying into services rather than industrial tasks. Therefore, African countries need to undertake a “double leap:” a value-added leap, moving into services within the sectors of traditional exports, and a technological leap, developing the infrastructure necessary for such services. 298
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? Figure 16.10: The Fruit and Vegetable Value Chain Source: Fernandez-Stark and others (2011). 16.5.1 The double leap The double leap is a leap in both value added and technology. Figure 16.11 illustrates the traditional so-called “smile curve,” which shows the partition of value added among different stages of production. The middle ground, i.e. the fabrication stage, is both the most crowded (with very competitive countries like China) and the least rewarding in terms of value added. A sound strategy for Africa would be to move into the pre- and post-fabrication stages instead of focusing on the fabrication stage. Yet it is impossible to develop pre- and post-production stages without first undertaking production. Industry remains a core element of Africa’s growth prospects, but diversification should look beyond industry and within existing value chains rather than focusing on product discoveries. 299
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AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
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Acknowledgements This volume is the
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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
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2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
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3. Industrialization: The Good Road
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PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
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6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
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8. Avoiding an African Spring: Conf
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9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge Haroon
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PART III The Governance Factor
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12. The Political Origins of Africa
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PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
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21. Past the Resource Curse: The
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A main improvement has involved eco
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23. Foreign Direct Investment, Natu
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24. Tanzania: Turning Natural Gas i
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26.5 Moving forward Africa’s mixe
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27. Smallholders Hold the Keys to A
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