africa

Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?
Figure 26.6: Cereal Yields in Tons/Hectare, North America and Developing
Regions, 1981-2011
Source: World Bank, 2014.
Nonetheless, there is preliminary evidence to suggest that African yields have
recently started to trend upward. When Kofi Annan gave his major speech in 2004,
yields the previous year had been 1.1 tons per hectare, essentially still the same
as in the early 1980s. But in the subsequent nine years, yields increased by 27
percent, the fastest rate of progress in three decades. The agricultural revolution’s
green shoots may have started to sprout, even if it remains too early to confirm how
strongly they have taken root.
One key piece of the puzzle is presented by Block (2013), who estimates total factor
productivity (TFP) trends in African agriculture since the early 1960s. He finds
a U-shaped historical pattern, with gradual long-term TFP declines over the 1960s
and 1970s, followed by gradual acceleration in TFP growth from the 1980s through
to the early 2000s. But the use of inputs like fertilizer remains extremely low, limiting
output advances despite the TFP growth.
In the simplest sense, agricultural output can be increased by expanding the area
planted (extensification) or by boosting output per hectare (intensification). Africa’s
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