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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Table 12.4: Mediation Analysis (Treatment = electoral competition; Mediating variable = RRA) (1) (2) (3) Dep. Var: Ag TFP gr RRA Ag TFP gr ELECOMP67 2.401** -0.438*** 3.242*** (1.107) (0.158) (1.084) Elecomp x rurpopshr -0.0132 0.00664*** -0.0259* (0.0151) (0.00215) (0.0148) Relative Rate of Assistance 1.917*** (0.439) Rural Pop. Share -0.0831** -0.0176*** -0.0494 (0.0350) (0.00500) (0.0346) Civil War dummy -0.127 -0.00116 -0.124 (0.231) (0.0329) (0.222) Constant 5.569** 0.914*** 3.817* (2.322) (0.331) (2.274) Observations 277 277 277 R-squared 0.218 0.382 0.277 Number of Countries 11 11 11 Evaluated with Rural Pop Share at: Total Effect of Treatment Direct Effect of Treatment 25 th pctl 50 th pctl 75 th pctl 1.60*** 1.49*** 1.34*** (0.293) (0.246) (0.278) 1.66*** 1.44*** 1.16*** (0.283) (0.238) (0.027) Mediation Effect -0.065 0.044 0.185** (0.076) (0.069) (0.093) Mediation Effect as Share of Total Effect -4.0% 2.9% 13.8% Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? 12.6.2 The greater economy When we turn to the analysis of the greater economy, we continue to employ a difference-in-difference framework and proceed in similar fashion, first exploring the link between institutional reform and the growth of total factor productivity (Table 12.5), then turning to the relationship between institutional change and policy reform (as measured by changes in the black market premium in Table 12.6 and the level of government intervention in markets and industries in Table 12.7); and concluding by assessing the degree to which policy change in the form of regulatory reform provides a channel between institutional reforms and changes in total factor productivity, as our reasoning suggests. 12.6.2.1 Omitted variables As when exploring the revival of Africa’s agricultural sector, when exploring the resumption of total factor productivity growth in Africa’s national economies we focus on the impact of institutional reforms and policy change. Clearly, other variables have influenced Africa’s economic performance. To purge our estimates of the bias that may result from their impact, we introduce a series of controls. • We include in our model measures of the economic significance of ore, fuel, and metals in exports. • Though we have focused on the significance of institutional change, a second political factor could be significant: conflict, and specifically civil wars, whose number, intensity, and geographic spread waxed and waned over the sample period. We therefore include a dummy that takes the value 1 for each country year in which there is was civil war. • The continent of Africa contains more than 50 countries, most of which are small. Forces that operate in one country can impinge upon events in another. We therefore control for the level of institutional reform in a nation’s neighbors. • We control as well for whether a country was participating in a program under the direction of the IMF. Given the growing importance of conditionality—which over time came to include institutional measures—the possibility arises that policy 219
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AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
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Yale Center for the Study of Global
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Acknowledgements This volume is the
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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
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2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
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3. Industrialization: The Good Road
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PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
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6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
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8. Avoiding an African Spring: Conf
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9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge Haroon
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16. Global Value Chains and “Serv
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17. Better Global Governance for a
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19. The Role of Aid in a Changing A
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PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
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21. Past the Resource Curse: The
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A main improvement has involved eco
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23. Foreign Direct Investment, Natu
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24. Tanzania: Turning Natural Gas i
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26.5 Moving forward Africa’s mixe
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27. Smallholders Hold the Keys to A
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