africa

Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?
that while there is a strong presumption that the trends that we report are real, we cannot be sure
that they are.
9
The international cross sectional regression line, derived frm a sample of about 100 developing and
developed countries is the black line extending from the northwest corner to the southeast corner
in each of the four panels of figure 5.1.
10
In this case, migration “depresses wage rates, denudes rural areas of innovators and hence, while
it may briefly relieve extreme need, seldom cuts chronic poverty” (as quoted in Diao and others,
2008).
11
The dataset used by de Janvry and Sadoulet (2010) to derive Figure 5.1 has not been kept up in
recent years. Instead of using data on the share of agriculture in the labor force, which are apparently
no longer available, I relied on data on the share of agriculture in total employment. Although
these two concepts are not analogous, their movements over time tend to coincide.
12
Given the very short time span (2004-06), measurement error cannot be ruled out.
13
The most impressive annual rates of labor productivity growth at the country level in the first decade
of this century were reported by Angola (5.7 percent); Mozambique (4.9 percent); Rwanda (4 percent);
Nigeria (4.8 percent); and Ghana (3.6 percent).
14
See http://www.blueskies.com.
15
This source contains an excellent analysis of many plausible correlates.
16
See Thorbecke (2013a) for a comprehensive and detailed discussion of the interrelationship among
growth, inequality, and poverty.
17
Thorbecke (2013b) provides specific examples of social protection and labor institutions already
successfully implemented in SSA or potentially transferable.
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