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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?<br />

Figure 29.6: Trends in Education Levels (average years of tertiary education),<br />

1950-2020<br />

Source: Data from Barro and Lee, 2010.<br />

The results further show that increased manufacturing value addition increases<br />

growth reversals in Africa, among oil exporters and autocratic regimes but not in<br />

countries that export mainly non-fuel primary products. The finding that increased<br />

diversification is associated with more growth reversals may be because some African<br />

countries’ diversification into manufacturing entailed producing products in which<br />

they lacked comparative advantage, and thus introduced vulnerabilities associated<br />

with lack of export competitiveness. On the other hand, increased openness to trade<br />

has no significant effects on growth in Africa except in exporters of non-fuel primary<br />

products. Trade linkages with the rest of the world have increased dramatically in<br />

Africa, but chiefly in commodities and primary products (Figure 29.7).<br />

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