africa

29. Towards Sustainability:
Predictors of Growth
Reversals in Africa
Jacob Oduor
African Development Bank
Hodkinson Brennan
African Development Bank
29.1 Introduction
In the last decade, Africa has recorded impressive economic growth performance,
which has excited optimists and confounded skeptics. Several debates around the
growth trends have mainly focused on whether this growth is sustainable or not.
While there is a lot of excitement about this growth, skeptics are not convinced that
there is any reason to celebrate at all. Several commentators have argued that
most developed countries grew because of industrial development and not primary
industries (agriculture and natural resource extraction), as is happening in Africa;
that it is only a matter of time before the bubble bursts; that a country needs manufacturing
value addition to grow sustainably; and that Africa has experienced boom
periods in the past that ended up nowhere. They also point to the persistent levels
of poverty, inequality, and unemployment that continue to plague Africa as indications
that the much-hyped growth is doing nothing to improve the living standards
of Africans. Some have even doubted the African statistics that are producing such
“exaggerated” growth figures in the face of glaring poverty and inequality.
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