africa

Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?
In each table, the first specification (column one) includes only the treatment variable
and time trend and uses the maximum number of available observations (when
additional controls are excluded). Column 2 repeats the initial specification, limiting
the sample to the largest common sample available when all controls are included;
this comparison tests one aspect of robustness. The remaining specifications (columns
3 – 6) progressively add to the list of covariates, first adding an indicator of
civil war, then introducing a variable indicating that the country was participating
in a program overseen by the IMF. Column 5 introduces controls for the shares of
ores and metals and fuel in merchandise exports, along with the dependency ratio,
and column 6 (when the dependent variable is TFP growth) includes rainfall. In an
effort to deal with endogeneity, we lag each independent variable (except rainfall)
by one five-year period.
In Table 12.5, we find that having a competitive electoral system in the previous fiveyear
period increases the rate of growth of TFP by approximately one percentage
point. 21 There is evidence that the impact of reforms spills over national boundaries.
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