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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization civil conflict, the average level of electoral competition in bordering states, and rural population share. Civil conflict was endemic in late-century Africa, with 40 percent of countries experiencing at least one year of civil war between 1960 and 2000. Noting the occurrence of civil conflict enables us to control for the possibility that political competition affects TFP growth through its impact on political stability (Snyder and Mansfield, 2000). If electoral competition were to generate strong political or economic forces, then the impact of these forces could spill across political boundaries. By controlling for the lagged average of the degree of electoral competition in each country’s neighbors, we control for this possibility as well. Lastly, note that the coefficient on the percentage of the population living in rural areas captures the impact of a wide range of other variables, including income, urbanization, media exposure, and others of the so-called “modernization” group of variables (Lerner, 1956). By including a measure of the relative size of the rural population, we thereby control for the impact of these unobserved variables. Inclusion of country-level fixed effects helps to control for the impact of other unobserved, time-invariant variables, such as climate, while the inclusion of annual fixed effects enables us to control for the impact of common shocks, such as price changes in global markets. An additional threat to identification in difference-in-difference models is the possibility that the effect (agricultural TFP growth) precedes the treatment (political reform). To assess this possibility, we follow Angrist and Pischke (2009) who invoke a form of Granger causality: The model allows for m lags (post-treatment effects) and q leads (anticipatory effects). Figure 12.12 graphs the coefficient estimates of these post- and pre-treatment effects on agricultural TFP growth for m = q = 4 leads and the lags surrounding the year in which each country transitioned into a system of competitive elections. The results indicate no significant anticipatory effect on changes in agricultural productivity. The difference between the mean coefficients before and after political transition is 0.56 percentage points, a magnitude consistent with the estimates in Table 12.2. 214
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? Figure 12.12: Crop TFP Growth Before/After Founding Election 12.6.1.2 Political reform and policy choice Table 12.3 captures the relationship between institutional reform and changes in the relative rate of assistance (RRA), our measure of policy bias against agriculture. Column 1 suggests a negative relationship between electoral competition and the level of urban bias, 13 but the addition of country-specific trends in column 2 renders the coefficient insignificant. 215
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AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
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Acknowledgements This volume is the
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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
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2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
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3. Industrialization: The Good Road
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PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
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6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
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8. Avoiding an African Spring: Conf
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9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge Haroon
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16. Global Value Chains and “Serv
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17. Better Global Governance for a
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19. The Role of Aid in a Changing A
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PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
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21. Past the Resource Curse: The
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A main improvement has involved eco
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23. Foreign Direct Investment, Natu
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24. Tanzania: Turning Natural Gas i
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26.5 Moving forward Africa’s mixe
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27. Smallholders Hold the Keys to A
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