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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Importantly for the work ahead, note that in each instance the data in Panel A suggest that institutional reform antedated policy reform—a finding that helps us to identify the causal nature of the relationship between them. 12.4.2.2 Policy choice and economic performance We hypothesize that these policy choices are the mechanisms through which the reform of Africa’s political institutions contributed to productivity growth. Figure 12.9 repeats the before/after analysis with TFP growth as the dependent variable, while Figure 12.10 repeats the growth decomposition of Figure 12.3, this time distinguishing between settings with and without electoral competition. The contrasts are striking but, being limited to two dimensions, they require, and warrant, further examination. Figure 12.9: Economy-wide TFP Growth Before/After Transition to Electoral Competition 206
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? Figure 12.10: Sources of Growth, With/Without Electoral Competition 12.5 A causal chain? On the basis of the evidence thus far, it appears possible that changes in Africa’s political institutions led to changes in policy choices, and that the latter altered incentives, enticing producers in the rural sector and in the economy as a whole to make more efficient use of the factors of production. Before this argument warrants our credence, however, we must take two additional steps. First, a line of reasoning must be advanced. It is plausible, of course, that policies that impose costs on producers will weaken economic incentives and lower the rate of growth of TFP. But why should changes in political institutions elicit changes in public policies? In this section, we address this question and seek thereby to strengthen the foundations of our argument. In addition, we need to move from the bivariate to multivariate analysis and so gain the ability to identify our causal argument. We take that second step in Section 12.6 below. 12.5.1 In agriculture Why might the movement from authoritarian government to party competition lead to changes in agricultural policy? In both authoritarian and competitive political systems, private interests influence the government’s choice of policies. But the process of 207
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AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
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Yale Center for the Study of Global
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Acknowledgements This volume is the
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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
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2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
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3. Industrialization: The Good Road
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PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
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6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
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8. Avoiding an African Spring: Conf
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9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge Haroon
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14. Corruption in Africa: Shifting
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16. Global Value Chains and “Serv
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17. Better Global Governance for a
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19. The Role of Aid in a Changing A
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PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
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21. Past the Resource Curse: The
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A main improvement has involved eco
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23. Foreign Direct Investment, Natu
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24. Tanzania: Turning Natural Gas i
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26.5 Moving forward Africa’s mixe
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27. Smallholders Hold the Keys to A
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