africa

Recommendations

Info

Yale Center for the Study of Globalization 23.3 Trends in oil production and FDI flows to SSA As noted above, the production of crude oil in Africa has increased substantially since the 1990s. Table 23.1 shows the average daily production of crude oil for the world, the various geographical regions, and the top four oil-exporting countries in SSA: Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Sudan. There are several notable points in Table 23.1. First, oil production grew faster in Africa than in the other regions. Between 1992 and 2011, oil production in Africa increased by 40 percent, compared with 32 percent in Asia, 15 percent in Europe, 24 percent in South America—and a decline of 4 percent in North America. Second, a large share of the production in Africa occurred in the top four oil-exporting countries, whose share of production rose from about 37.6 percent in 1992-96 to about 52.5 percent in 2008-11. Third, the growth in oil production in Equatorial Guinea and Sudan from 1992-2011 was substantial: 3,946 percent for Equatorial Guinea and 207,437 percent for Sudan. Note that oil was discovered in Equatorial Guinea in 1990 and in Sudan in 1991, suggesting that the increase in oil production in SSA is driven by new discoveries. This is consistent with our assertion that the rise in global demand for oil is being met by increased oil production in SSA. Table 23.1: Daily Crude Oil Production (thousands of barrels per day) Region/Country 1992-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2008- 2011 % Change 1992-96 to 2008-11 World 60064.4 64644.4 69319.2 71966.9 20 Asia 23949.2 27196.1 29277.2 31517.8 32 Europe 10724.5 10346.9 12343.6 12331.8 15 North America 11231.2 11121.6 11172.1 10758.7 -4 South America 4994.6 6241.0 5972.1 6192.1 24 Africa 6808.6 7369.5 8671.8 9508.4 40 Angola 585.2 736.6 1102.8 1871.2 220 Equatorial Guinea 7.7 117.3 298.0 312.1 3946 Nigeria 1965.4 2167.4 2357.8 2340.8 19 Sudan 0.2 118.5 315.8 472.1 207437 Total for top oil producing countries in SSA 2558.6 3139.8 4074.4 4996.2 % of oil produced by the top four countries 37.6 42.6 47.0 52.5 Sources: Index Mundi 2009; US Energy Information Administration, 2009. Note: “Africa” includes Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa. 400
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again? Figure 23.1 and Table 23.2 show trends in FDI flows to SSA. Figure 23.1 shows that FDI to the region has increased substantially since 2000. Table 23.2 shows that average annual FDI grew faster in SSA than in non-SSA developing countries (excluding China): between 1990-99 and 2000-09, FDI to SSA grew by 181 percent, and that to non-SSA developing countries by 109 percent. Furthermore, the growth of FDI in SSA was about 4.5 times that in East Asia and Pacific, 4 times that in Latin America, and about 1.6 times that in non-SSA developing countries. However, as shown in Table 23.3, the investments are concentrated in oil-exporting countries. Over the period 2000-09, about 40 percent of FDI flows to SSA went to the top four oil-exporting countries, and this share is larger (49 percent) when FDI to South Africa is excluded. Note that this implies that the remaining 43 countries in the region received only 51 percent of the investment. Since FDI in oil-producing economies tends to be concentrated in oil, one can infer that the recent increase in FDI to SSA has been mainly in the oil industry. 10 Table 23.2: Net Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries, Excluding China (constant 2005 US$, millions) Income Group/Region 1990-1999 2000-2009 % Growth 1990-99 to 2000-09 Developing countries 957 2,052 114 East Asia & Pacific 625 916 47 Latin America & Caribbean 545 764 40 South Asia 33 172 427 Sub-Saharan Africa 66 187 181 Source: World Bank (2011) and calculations by authors. The conjecture is supported by Figure 23.2, which shows a graph of FDI flows and the share of oil in total exports for 21 countries in SSA. The data on FDI and oil export intensity are averaged from 2000-09. The graph shows a positive correlation between FDI and oil export intensity. An ordinary least squares regression of Ln(FDI) on oil export intensity yields an estimated coefficient of 0.033, with a robust p-value=0.007, and R 2 =0.26. This implies that, all else equal, a one-percentage point increase in oil export intensity will raise FDI by about 0.033 percent. 401
Page 1:
AFRICA at a Fork in the Road TAKING
Page 4 and 5:
Yale Center for the Study of Global
Page 6 and 7:
Page 9 and 10:
Acknowledgements This volume is the
Page 11:
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
Page 14 and 15:
Page 16 and 17:
Page 18 and 19:
Page 20 and 21:
Page 22 and 23:
Page 24 and 25:
Page 26 and 27:
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36 and 37:
Page 39 and 40:
2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
3. Industrialization: The Good Road
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51:
Page 54 and 55:
Page 56 and 57:
Page 58 and 59:
Page 61:
PART II Why Performance Matters: Th
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85:
Page 87 and 88:
6. Inclusive Growth in Africa: Curr
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
Page 128 and 129:
Page 130 and 131:
Page 133 and 134:
8. Avoiding an African Spring: Conf
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge Haroon
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 170 and 171:
Page 172 and 173:
Page 174 and 175:
Page 176 and 177:
Page 179:
PART III The Governance Factor
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Page 186 and 187:
Page 189 and 190:
12. The Political Origins of Africa
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237:
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
Page 244 and 245:
Page 246 and 247:
Page 248 and 249:
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Page 256 and 257:
Page 258 and 259:
Page 261 and 262:
14. Corruption in Africa: Shifting
Page 263 and 264:
Page 265 and 266:
Page 267 and 268:
Page 269:
Page 272 and 273:
Page 274 and 275:
Page 276 and 277:
Page 279 and 280:
16. Global Value Chains and “Serv
Page 281 and 282:
Page 283 and 284:
Page 285 and 286:
Page 287 and 288:
Page 289 and 290:
Page 291 and 292:
Page 293 and 294:
Page 295 and 296:
Page 297 and 298:
Page 299 and 300:
Page 301 and 302:
Page 303 and 304:
Page 305 and 306:
Page 307 and 308:
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
Page 315 and 316:
17. Better Global Governance for a
Page 317 and 318:
Page 319 and 320:
Page 321 and 322:
Page 323 and 324:
Page 325 and 326:
Page 327 and 328:
Page 329:
Page 332 and 333:
Page 334 and 335:
Page 336 and 337:
Page 338 and 339:
Page 341 and 342:
19. The Role of Aid in a Changing A
Page 343 and 344:
Page 345 and 346:
Page 347 and 348:
Page 349 and 350: Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
Page 353: PART V Shaping Africa’s Future
Page 356 and 357: Yale Center for the Study of Global
Page 365 and 366: 21. Past the Resource Curse: The
Page 371: Africa at a Fork in the Road: Takin
Page 380 and 381: A main improvement has involved eco
Page 395 and 396: 23. Foreign Direct Investment, Natu
Page 415 and 416: 24. Tanzania: Turning Natural Gas i
Page 450 and 451:
Page 452 and 453:
Page 454 and 455:
Page 456 and 457:
Page 458 and 459:
Page 460 and 461:
Page 462 and 463:
Page 464 and 465:
Page 466 and 467:
26.5 Moving forward Africa’s mixe
Page 468 and 469:
Page 470 and 471:
Page 473 and 474:
27. Smallholders Hold the Keys to A
Page 475 and 476:
Page 477 and 478:
Page 479 and 480:
Page 481 and 482:
Page 483:
Page 486 and 487:
Page 488 and 489:
Page 490 and 491:
Page 492 and 493:
Page 494 and 495:
Page 496 and 497:
Page 498 and 499:
Page 500 and 501:
Page 502 and 503:
Page 504 and 505:
Page 506 and 507:
Page 508 and 509:
Page 510 and 511:
Page 512 and 513:
Page 514 and 515:
Page 516 and 517:
Page 518 and 519:
Page 520 and 521:
Page 522 and 523:
Page 524 and 525:
Page 526 and 527:
Page 528 and 529:
Page 530 and 531:
Page 532 and 533:
Page 534 and 535:
show all

africa

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?