12th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling

The <strong>12th</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Symposium</strong> on District Heating and Cooling,September 5 th to September 7 th , 2010, Tallinn, Estoniachemical and food & tobacco industries are the mostimportant ones. Each country is clearly specialised indiffering industrial sub-sectors.Space heating and cooling demand in Europetoday and in futureThe demand for space heating and cooling differsamong the countries in Europe due to the differences inclimatic conditions and in living standards (e.g. squaremeters per capita) and building standards. This isespecially applicable to the assessment of current andnear future energy demand.Heat demand in [PJ]Cooiling demand in PJ14000120001000080006000400020000120010008006004002002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500Commercial Urban MFH Urban SFH Rual New HousesResidential SFHResidential MFHCommercial2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050yearFigure 2: Demand for space heating/hot water and forcooling in the EU27In the 2000, the useful demand for cooling was lessthan 5% lower than the useful demand for spaceheating and hot water. In the long term, the coolingdemand will be dominated by the commercial sector.The increase of cooling demand in the EU27 up to2050 will reach approx. 1120 PJ in the residential andcommercial sectors.occuring at this price level are analysed according tothe role of the different reduction possibilities.The foundation for the CO 2 price variation is set basedon the CO 2 price outcomes from two scenario runs witha reduction target of 15% [scenario: 15% reduction(2020)] and 40% [scenario: 40% reduction (2020)] in2020 compared to the Kyoto base year (Table 1). In thelong run (2050), both of these restricting scenarioshave the same target which equals a 450ppm goal(-71% in 2050 compared to 1990).2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205040% reduction (2020) -40% -45% -50% -55% -61% -66% -71%15% reduction (2020) -15% -20% -25% -37% -48% -60% -71%Table 1: CO2 reduction pathways for the two restrictingscenariosThe resulting CO 2 prices of these two restrictionscenarios build the framework for the price variations.Within the range of the resulting CO 2 prices, the carbonprice varies between 10 €/tCO 2 and 110 €/tCO 2 in 2020in increments of 10 €. In 2030, the price varies between27 €/ tCO 2 and 123 €/ tCO 2 . The price increases until itreaches the level of a 450 ppm scenario in 2050(Figure 3). The emission reductions are evaluatedusing the results from the different scenarios incomparison to the case of the lowest CO 2 prices (10 €/tin 2020, 27 €/t in 2030). First, the total reductions overall sectors are presented and afterwards the focus willbe on the industrial sector. The drivers of the reductionare shown separately. Looking at the industrial sector,the reasons for the emission reductions could be splitup into more efficient production processes, moreefficient heat supply, fuel switch in heat generatingunits or CCS technologies in production processes andenergy supply.CO2 price [€ 2000]4504003503002502001501005002020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205015% reduction(2020)40% reduction(2020)CO2_10CO2_20CO2_30CO2_40CO2_50CO2_60CO2_70CO2_80CO2_90CO2_100CO2_110Figure 3: CO2 prices of the different scenariosSCENARIO DEFINITIONA parameter variation is used to evaluate the reductionpotential and the role of CHP and district heat in theenergy system of the EU27. By varying the CO 2 price,the reduction potential curves are constructed.Therefore, different scenarios with different CO 2 prices(one common price for ETS and Non-ETS sectors) arecalculated with TIMES PanEU and the reductions231OVERVIEW OF THE DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT OFTHE ENERGY SYSTEM OVER TIMEIn the following analysis, the two scenarios with thelowest (10 €/t CO 2 in 2020, scenario CO2_010) and thehighest (110 €/t CO 2 in 2020, scenario CO2_110)prices are displayed to show the range in which theresults of the price variation occur. Therefore, thedevelopment over the whole modelling horizon(2000–2050) is presented to rank the more detailed