12th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling

The <strong>12th</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Symposium</strong> on District Heating and Cooling,September 5 th to September 7 th , 2010, Tallinn, Estoniaresults from a point of time within these more generalresults over a period of time. Since the CO 2 reductiontarget of the two bounding scenarios [scenario 15%reduction (2020) and scenario 40% reduction (2020)]clearly differ in the mid-term periods of 2020 and 2030(Table 1) and the corresponding prices are moredifferent in these periods (Figure 3), the energy systemshows the most variations during this time.To show the development over the modelled timeperiod, first of all the net electricity generation of EU-27is displayed (Figure 4). The overall electricitygeneration remains almost constant at 2010 levels(about 3 200 TWh) until 2030. In later periods, there isa clear increase in electricity generation up to4 255 TWh (2050, scenario CO2_110). The increase inthe later periods is driven by stronger emissionreduction targets. To fulfil the restrictions, moreelectricity with low specific emissions and high end useefficiency in the demand sectors is used.According to the given CO 2 prices of the two scenarios(CO2_010 and CO2_110), the main differences occurin the mid term periods. While the total electricitydemand in 2020 is lower in the scenario with higheremission certificate prices (-22 TWh in 2020 betweenCO2_110 and CO2_010), the demand is higher by86 TWh in 2030. The increase is due to the use ofmore efficient technologies in the end use sectorsresulting in lower electricity demand in 2020, while by2030 the switch to electricity based technologies to fulfilthe emission restrictions has already taken place.Net electricity generation [TWh]450040003500300025002000150010005000StatisticCO2_010CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_1102000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Figure 4: Net electricity generation in the EU-27Others / Wastenon-ren.OtherRenewablesBiomass /Waste ren.SolarWindHydroNuclearNatural gasOilLigniteAside from the changes in the total electricity demand,there is also a change in the structure of the electricitygeneration. At higher CO 2 prices, less coal (-120 TWhfrom coal fired power plants in 2030) and more gas(+44 TWh) and nuclear (+30 TWh) are used and moreelectricity from renewable energy sources (+35 TWhfrom wind, +56 TWh from biomass and renewablewaste) is generated. Furthermore, CCS is used morewidely under the conditions of the CO2_110 scenario in2030 compared to CO2_010.CoalThe electricity generation from CHP plants in the EU27increases by 79% from about 380 TWh in the year2000 to 640 TWh by the year 2020 (see Figure 4). Theextension of the electricity generation from CHP plantsis essentially supported by gas-fired and biomassbased CHP plants. Additionally, existing public CHPplants with an extraction condensing turbine aresubstituted by CHP plants with a higher power-to-heatratio and there is also an extension of industrial CHPplants, which are often used in cooperation withcommunal facilities. The intermediate growth of CHPplants in the commercial sector between the years2015 and 2035 are based on efficiency advantages ofCHP plants with a medium sized internal combustiongas engine. In the long term, the limited possibilities ofusing CO 2 free fuels in commercial CHPs will result inthese phasing out in the commercial sector. Until theyear 2050 the electricity production by CHP plants inthe scenarios further increases up to a level of 1055 to1100 TWh. CHP plants based on biomass as well asCCS CHP are an important option in the year 2050.Net electricity generation CHP in [TWh]1200.001000.00800.00600.00400.00200.000.00CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_1102000 2005.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Figure 5: Net electricity generation CHP by sector in theEU-27In addition to the net electricity generation, the primary(Figure 6) and final energy (Figure 7) consumption ofthe EU-27 are also analysed over the whole timeperiod. Overall, the primary energy consumption (PEC)does not show clear changes and remains at a level ofabout 75 000 PJ. The lowest total PEC occurs in themid-term periods. The total consumption is influencedby an increasing efficiency till 2030 and later on by ahigher share of renewables and also CCS which bothlead to a higher consumption due to the lower thermalefficiency in the combustion processes.Looking at the impact of the single energy carriers,there is a distinct change between the two scenariosthan in the total sum of the PEC. In 2030 at a higherCO 2 price, less coal (-1 675 PJ) and petroleumproducts (-881 PJ) and more Hydro, wind, solar(+338 PJ) and other renewables +4856 PJ) (mainlybiomass) are used.PublicComercialIndustry232