12th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling

The <strong>12th</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Symposium</strong> on District Heating and Cooling,September 5 th to September 7 th , 2010, Tallinn, EstoniaPrimary energy consumption [PJ]9000080000700006000050000400003000020000100000StatisticCO2_010CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_1102000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Figure 6: Primary energy consumption in the EU-27ElectricityimportWaste (nonrenewable)OtherrenewablesHydro, wind,solarNuclearNatural gasOilLigniteThe final energy consumption (FEC) showscomparable results (Figure 7). The use of petroleumproducts declines over time in both scenarios(-9 052 PJ in scenario CO2_010 between 2000 and2050). The use of gas increases at lower CO 2 prices inthe mid-term periods (up to more than 13 500 PJ in2020 at scenario CO2_010), but declines in bothscenarios at the very end. This shows that one earlyand cost-effective measure for emission reduction isthe fossil fuel switch from petroleum products and coalto gas in the end use sectors.As already shown with electricity generation, the use ofelectricity also increases in the end use sectors.Especially in the long run at higher carbon prices, thereis a clear rise. The use of renewable energy sourcesalso increases constantly in both scenarios. In 2020and 2030, clearly more renewables are used in theCO2_110 scenario due to the higher CO 2 prices(+3900 PJ in 2030).In contrast to the PEC, the total FEC decreases slightlyin the long run. The reason for this differentdevelopment is that the higher conversion lossesarising from a higher electricity demand and theextended use of renewables and CCS at the publicelectricity generation are balanced at PEC and do notinfluence the FEC.Even though more renewables (mainly biomass) areused, due to the higher use of electricity with its highend use efficiency and other efficiency improvements,the total FEC declines to 49 482 PJ (in 2050 atscenario CO2_110). This efficiency improvementoccurs in the industrial sector mainly at industrialproduction processes, but is also clearly driven byefficiency improvements ain the residential andtransport sectors.99For a detailed discussion of the effects in the different enduse sectors and its impact on the total final energyconsumption see /Blesl et al. (2010)/Coal233Total final energy consumption [PJ]6000050000400003000020000100000StatisticCO2_010CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_1002000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Figure 7: Final energy consumption in the EU-27Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)WasteRenewablesHeatElectricityGasPetroleumproductsIn contrast to the year 2000, the distribution of localand district heat to the household, commercial andindustrial sectors changes by the year 2050 with anadditional approx. 1000 PJ district consumed in theyear 2050 (see Figure 8).Final energy consumption heat in [PJ]3500300025002000150010005000CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100SupplyResidentialIndustryComercialAgricultureCO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_100CoalCO2_010CO2_100CO2_010CO2_1002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Figure 8: Final energy consumption district heat in theEU27In the long term, the CO 2 contents of the heat supply forthe end use sectors will be reduced from 130 kgCO2/MWh to 122 kg CO2/MWh in 2020 and from 113kg CO2/MWh to 36 kg CO2/MWh in the year 2050,which is one explanation for achieving the CO2reduction targets in this area. On the other hand, thepossibility to use renewable energy or to install CCS,increasingly influences the penetration of CHP. By2050, fossil heat plants will also be substituted withlarge heat pumps and solar thermal heat plants incombination with storages, biomass heat plants fuelledwith wood or woody crops and biogas.The overall emissions decrease is based on theemission reductions of the single sectors leading todifferent CO 2 abatement costs (Figure 9). The totalemissions correspond to the emission pathway of thetwo restricting scenarios (scenario ―15% reduction(2020)‖ and scenario ―40% reduction (2020)‖, seeTable 1. The earliest and strongest reductions takeplace in the conversion/production sector. Theindustrial sector and the residential/commercial sectoralso show clear reductions. The transport sector tends