12th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling

The <strong>12th</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Symposium</strong> on District Heating and Cooling,September 5 th to September 7 th , 2010, Tallinn, Estonia2000420030%District heat generation in [PJ]18001600140012001000800600400200027 36 46 56 65 75 85 94 104 114 123carbon price in [€/t CO2]Heat Plant RESHeat PlantCHP RESCHP FCCHP CCSFigure 12: District heat generation in the EU-27 in 2030 bytechnology groupCHPUse of Electricity [PJ]418041604140412041004080406040404020400027 36 46 56 65 75 85 94 104 114 123Carbon price [€ 2000/tCO2]25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Change of Electricity supply by technologycompared to CO 2 price of 27 €/tFigure 13: Use of electricity in the EU-27 in 2030 bytechnologySUMpublicgenerationCondensingindustrialCHPindustrialIn the industrial sector, the share of CHP will grow. Theadditional emission reductions by the industrial sectorof 301 Mt in the year 2030 could be split into industrialsupply and industrial production processes. The supplyside covers the industrial generation of energycommodities or energy services. These are electricityfrom industrial condensing power plants and CHPs,heat and steam from CHPs and boilers, space heatingand heat for hot water as well as cooling. The supplyactivities play an important role in the industrial subsectorswith a high share of space heating (such asfood & tobacco or other industries) or low temperatureprocess heat (such as pulp & paper or food & tobacco).In total, from the additional reduced emissions, 147 Mtare reduced by industrial supply processes and 154 Mtby production processes in 2030. While at lower a CO 2price more emissions are reduced on the supply side(66% of the additional reduction based on supplyprocesses at 46 €/t), at higher prices more and morereductions take place on the production side (49 %based on supply processes at 123 €/t).The additional electricity needed at high CO 2 prices ismainly generated by industrial autoproducers. Withinthis industrial production, the additional electricitymainly comes from CHP power plants. The use ofelectricity in the industrial sector from public generationremains relatively constant even when the CO 2 priceincreases. Accordingly, one key way to reduce theemissions on the supply side is through the extendeduse of CHP plants for industrial power generation. Thishigher amount of electricity from industrialautoproducers (Figure 13) leads to higher conversionlosses in total when the fuel use is considered. Asdescribed above, that is one reason for the differencebetween final energy consumption and fuelconsumption. Another reason is the lower efficiency ofelectricity generation due to the higher use of CCS.The other part of the industrial supply processes is theindustrial heat generation. The drivers for the emissionreduction in industrial heat production are a switch tobiomass (from coal and clearly from gas) and the useof CCS in industrial CHPs (Figure 14). Between a CO 2price of 36 and 56 €/t of CO 2 in 2030, there is a clearincrease in the use of renewables in boilers. The shareof renewables in the total fuel use in industrial boilersincreases from 33% to 51%. As a result, the thermalefficiency of boilers has an overall decrease.In industrial CHPs, there is also a slight increase in theuse of s. This switch takes place between CO 2 pricesof 27 €/t to 65 €/t. However, the main changeconcerning CHPs is the increasing use of CCS. At aCO 2 price above 94 €/t, there is a clear rise in the useof this technology. These CCS CHPs are mainly gasfired 10 . This is why the share of renewables used inindustrial CHPs declines at a price over 75 €/t again.Like biomass, the extended CCS use also leads tolower efficiencies resulting in both the efficiency ofboilers and CHPs to decline over time. Accordingly, thekey driver is not efficiency improvements, but the useof renewables and CCS. The effects of renewables andCCS compensate the trend to lower energy intensitywithin one technology. Gas boilers become moreefficient and as do biomass boilers. However, the moreefficient biomass boilers still use more fuel than the gasboilers.Looking at the heat output by technology, there is alsoa shift (Figure 14). At lower emission prices, the heatoutput from industrial boilers stays almost constant.Within this range, the share of renewables usedincreases (as illustrated in Figure 13). Afterwards, at aprice above 65 €/t, boilers are substituted with heatfrom CHPs and district heat. Both heat commodities23510For a detailed analysis of the CCS potentials, costsand the modelling of CCS in TIMES PanEU see/Kober, Blesl (2010a), Kober, Blesl (2010b), Kober,Blesl (2009)/