12th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling

The <strong>12th</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Symposium</strong> on District Heating and Cooling,September 5 th to September 7 th , 2010, Tallinn, Estoniaonly to reduce its emissions with very strict reductiontargets connected to high carbon prices.900800TransportCommercialEmissions of CO 2 [Mt]450040003500300025002000150010005000StatisticCO2_010CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_110CO2_010CO2_1102000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050TransportHouseholds,commercial,AGRIndustryConversion,productionAdditional emission reduction [Mt]700600500400300200100036 46 56 65 75 85 94 104 114 123Carbon price [€ 2000/tCO2]ResidentialIndustryConversion/ProductionFigure 10: Additional CO2 reduction in the EU-27 in 2030by sector compared to the scenario with the lowest CO2price of 27 €/tFigure 9: CO2 emissions in the EU-27ANALYSIS AT A SPECIFIC POINT OF TIME WITHFOCUS ON 2030After the general effects are described and thescenarios with the lowest and highest CO2 prices areanalysed over the whole period of time, a more detailedanalysis shows the effects in the industrial sectorduring the mid-term periods with a particular focus on2030.Firstly, the reduction potential of the different sectorsshould be analysed (Figure 10). Both conversion/production and the other end use sectors are takeninto account. As in the results of the emission reductionfrom 2000 to 2050 (Figure 9), the industrial reductionpotential plays the key role next to theconversion/production sector. Looking at the year 2030and comparing the additional CO 2 reductions when theCO 2 price is increased from 27 €/t to 123 €/t, thestrongest additional reduction occurs at the conversionsector (+351 Mt at a price of 123 €/t compared to27 €/t). An additional 301 Mt of CO 2 are reduced by theindustrial sector.Especially at higher prices above 94 €/t, the reductionpotential of the industrial sector becomes more andmore important. Its share of the total additionalreduction increases from 33% (36 €/t compared to27 €/t) to 37% (123 €/t to 27 €/t). The lowest reductionoccurs in the transport sector. Till a price of 85 €/t, onlyan additional 6.3 Mt are reduced, while at a price of123 €/t an additional 18.9 Mt are reduced. In theresidential and commercial sector, some reductionpossibilities are cost-effective even without a price onCO 2 . The energy savings outweigh the additionalinvestment costs. Those reduction measures areespecially connected to the building/heating sector.One reason for the CO2 reduction in the residential,commercial and industrial sectors is the increase infinal energy demand from district heat (see figure 11).The overall increase of the district heat demandinfluenced by the different CO2 prices is 14%. Thebiggest growth can be seen in the commercial sector,where the total district heat demand for district heatinggrows by over 30% between the min the minimum andmaximum CO2 certificate price.Final energy demand heat in [PJ]200018001600140012001000800600400200027 36 46 56 65 75 85 94 104 114 123Carbon price [€/T CO2]Figure 11: Final energy demand of district heat in theEU-27 in 2030 by sectorResidentialIndustryComercialAgricultureHowever, the generation of district heat from the use ofrenewable sources and CCS will be one reason for thegrowth of the reduction potential in the conversionsector (Figure 12). The share of the use of renewables,especially biomass, will rise from 29% to 60%. Morethan 1300 PJ of additional biomass will be needed.Due to this increase, the average heat to power ratio ofall CHPs will fall from 0.9 to 0.66. In the cases whereCO 2 prices exceed 56 €/tCO 2 , the district heatgeneration in CCS CHP plants grow more rapidly. Thespecific emissions of the district heat generationdecrease from approx. 380 kg / MWh to 84 kg / MWh.234