Carbaryl, Carbofuran, and Methomyl - National Marine Fisheries ...

Cumulative Effects
Cumulative effects include the effects of future state, tribal, local, or private actions that are
reasonably certain to occur in the action area considered by this Opinion. Future federal actions
that are unrelated to the proposed action are not considered in this section because they require
separate consultation pursuant to section 7 of the ESA.
During this consultation, NMFS searched for information on future state, tribal, local, or private
actions that were reasonably certain to occur in the action area. NMFS conducted electronic
searches of business journals, trade journals, and newspapers using Google and other electronic
search engines. Those searches produced reports on projected population growth, commercial
and industrial growth, and global warming. Trends described below highlight the effects of
population growth on existing populations and habitats for all 28 ESUs/DPSs. Changes in the
near-term (five-years; 2014) are more likely to occur than longer-term projects (10-years; 2019).
Projections are based upon recognized organizations producing best available information and
reasonable rough-trend estimates of change stemming from these data. NMFS analysis provides
a snapshot of the effects from these future trends on listed ESUs.
States along the Pacific west coast, which also contribute water to major river systems, are
projected to have the most rapid growth of any area in the U.S. within the next few decades.
This is particularly true for coastal states. California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington are
forecasted to have double digit increases in population for each decade from 2000 to 2030
(USCB 2005). Overall, the west coast region [which also includes four additional states
(Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and Alaska) beyond the action area] had a projected population of 65.6
million people in 2005. This figure will eventually grow to 70.0 million in 2010 and 74.4
million in 2015. At this rate, such growth will make the Pacific coast states the most populous
region in the nation.
Although general population growth stems from development of metropolitan areas, growth in
the western states is projected from the enlargement of smaller cities rather than from major
metropolitan areas. Of the 42 metropolitan areas that experienced a 10% growth or greater
429