Carbaryl, Carbofuran, and Methomyl - National Marine Fisheries ...

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the population productivity, was selected as the primary model output for reasons outlined previously. A prospective analysis of the transition matrix, A, (Caswell 2001) explored the intrinsic population growth rate as a function of the vital rates. The intrinsic population growth rate, λ, equals the dominant eigenvalue of A and was calculated using matrix analysis software (MATLAB version 7.7.0 by The Math Works Inc., Natick, MA). Therefore, λ is calculated directly from the matrix and running projections of abundances over time is redundant and unnecessary. The stable age distribution, the proportional distribution of individuals among the ages when the population is at equilibrium, is calculated as the right normalized eigenvector corresponding to the dominant eigenvalue λ. Variability was integrated by repeating the calculation of λ 2,000 times selecting the values in the transition matrix from their normal distribution defined by the mean standard deviation. The influence of each matrix element, aij, on λ was assessed by calculating the sensitivity values for A. The sensitivity of matrix element aij equals the rate of change in λ with respect to aij, defined by δλ/ δaij. Higher sensitivity values indicate greater influence on λ. The elasticity of matrix element aij is defined as the proportional change in λ relative to the proportional change in aij, and equals (aij/λ) times the sensitivity of aij. One characteristic of elasticity analysis is that the elasticity values for a transition matrix sum to unity (one). The unity characteristic also allows comparison of the influence of transition elements and comparison across matrices. Due to differences in the life history strategies, specifically lifespan, age at reproduction and first year residence and migration habits, four life history models were constructed. This was done to encompass the different responses to freshwater pesticide exposures and assess potentially different population-level responses. Separate models were constructed for coho, sockeye, ocean-type and stream-type Chinook salmon. In all cases transition values were determined from literature data on survival and reproductive characteristics of each species. A life history model was constructed for coho salmon (O. kisutch) with a maximum age of 3. Spawning occurs in late fall and early winter with emergence from March to May. Fry spend 14- 18 months in freshwater, smolt and spend 16-20 months in the saltwater before returning to 544
spawn (Pess et al. 2002). Survival numbers were summarized in Knudsen et al. (2002) as follows. The average fecundity of each female is 4,500 with a standard deviation of 500. The observed number of males:females was 1:1. Survival from spawning to emergence is 0.3 (0.07). Survival from emergence to smolt is 0.0296 (0.00029) and marine survival is 0.05 (0.01). All parameters followed a normal distribution (Knudson et al. 2002). The calculated values used in the matrix are listed in Table 4. The growth period for first year coho was set at 180 days to represent the time from mid-spring to mid-fall when the temperatures and resources drop and somatic growth slows (Knudson et al. 2002). Life history models for sockeye salmon (O. nerka) were based upon the lake wintering populations of Lake Washington, Washington, USA. These female sockeye salmon spend one winter in freshwater, then migrate to the ocean to spend three to four winters before returning to spawn at ages 4 or 5. Jacks return at age 2 after only one winter in the ocean. The age proportion of returning adults is 0.03, 0.82, and 0.15 for ages 3, 4 and 5, respectively (Gustafson et al.1997). All age 3 returning adults are males. Hatch rate and first-year survival were calculated from brood year data on escapement, resulting presmolts and returning adults (Pauley et al. 1989), and fecundity (McGurk 2000). Fecundity values for age 4 females were 3,374 (473) and for age 5 females were 4,058 (557) (McGurk 2000). First-year survival rates were 0.737/month (Gustafson et al. 1997). Ocean survival rates were calculated based upon brood data and the findings that 90% of ocean mortality occurs during the first 4 months of ocean residence (Pauley et al. 1989). Matrix values used in the sockeye baseline model are listed in Table 4. The 168 day growth period represents the time from lake entry to early fall when the temperature drops and somatic growth slows (Gustafson et al. 1997). A life history model was constructed for ocean-type Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) with a maximum female age of 5 and reproductive maturity at ages 3, 4, or 5. Ocean-type Chinook salmon migrate from their natal stream within a couple months of hatching and spend several months rearing in estuary and nearshore habitats before continuing on to the open ocean. Transition values were determined from literature data on survival and reproductive characteristics from several ocean-type Chinook salmon populations in the Columbia River system (Healey and Heard 1984, Howell et al. 1985, Roni and Quinn 1995, Ratner et al. 1997, 545
Page 1 and 2:
Ms. Debbie Edwards Director, Office
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National Marine Fisheries Service E
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Snake River Spring/Summer-Run Chino
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Commercial, Recreational, and Subsi
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Critical Habitat Risk Hypotheses ba
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Table of Figures Figure 1. Stressor
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Table of Tables Table 1. Registered
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Table 31. Area of Land Use Categori
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Table 67. . Examples of published f
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Agency: Activities Considered: Nati
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This Opinion is based on NMFS’ re
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activities that may improve EPA’s
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affect but is not likely to adverse
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On November 13, 2008, EPA provided
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On January 21, 2009, the agencies a
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in California, Idaho, Oregon, and W
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On that same date, EPA e-mailed NMF
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After registering a pesticide, EPA
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isk assessment. With these and othe
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Typically, formulations are combine
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EPA also issued generic and product
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pecans, peppers, pistachios, plums,
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Use Site plants, woody plants CRP a
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are subject to a four year phase-ou
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Table 2. Registered uses and applic
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mildews and other fungal diseases.
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methomyl are 32.4 lb a.i./acre/year
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would not likely adversely affect C
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In the final steps of our analyses,
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Evidence Available for the Consulta
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sustaining in the natural environme
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Stressors of the Action (see Figure
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Species Risk Hypotheses We construc
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habitats is then assessed. This por
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The problem formulation phase as ar
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Risk Characterization We follow the
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the probability of risk. In the Ris
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Figure 5. Map showing extent of inl
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Opinion. Summaries of the status an
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Chinook salmon are dependent on the
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Eureka Figure 6. CC Chinook salmon
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Table 6. CC Chinook salmon--prelimi
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Table 7 identifies populations with
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The CV drainage as a whole is estim
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have greatly reduced or eliminated
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Portland Salem Figure 9. LCR Chinoo
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important life history type remains
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Table 9. UCR Chinook salmon - preli
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In the most recent five-year geomet
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Figure 11. Puget Sound Chinook dist
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Status and Trends Puget Sound Chino
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flow, temperature, sediment load, w
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San Francisco Figure 12. Sacramento
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of historic spawning areas. Additio
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Status and Trends SR fall-run Chino
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Critical Habitat Critical habitat f
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Portland Seattle Spokane Figure 14.
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and five-year old fish, after two t
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surface and ground water and degrad
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Life History UWR Chinook salmon exh
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Bay, California. Historically, chum
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quality in the freshwater, estuarin
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Life History Chum salmon return to
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catastrophic events. Overall, the p
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Figure 17. Hood Canal Summer-run Ch
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improvements in 2000, with upward t
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ground water and degrade water qual
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San Francisco Figure 18. CCC Coho s
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Information on the abundance and pr
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Table 16 identifies populations wit
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Life History Although run time vari
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programs. The three major river sys
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Data on population abundance and tr
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Figure 21. Oregon Coast Coho salmon
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Preliminary spawner survey data for
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channels, backwaters, terrace tribu
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Figure 22. Ozette Lake Sockeye salm
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the 1997 status review due to resam
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Seattle Portland Figure 23. SR Sock
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Adult returns to Redfish Lake durin
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esume migration in early spring to
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Central California Coast Steelhead
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Status and Trends The CCC steelhead
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San Francisco Figure 25. California
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and Jackson 1996; McEwan 2001). Ste
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Olympia Portland Salem Figure 26. L
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hatchery fish in naturally-spawning
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species includes the only populatio
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Life History Most MCR steelhead smo
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Critical Habitat Critical habitat w
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Eureka Figure 28. Northern Californ
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may affect steelhead migration patt
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Of the 21 populations in the Puget
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Seattle Spokane Figure 30. SR Basin
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and spawner estimates for the Tucan
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San Jose Figure 31. S-CCC steelhead
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Figure 32. Southern California stee
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extinction,” with the remaining 1
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Portland Figure 33. UCR Steelhead d
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“low” for the Wenatchee and Met
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Figure 34. UWR Steelhead distributi
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Molalla/Pudding, Yamhill, Tualatin,
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Natural Mortality Factors Available
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Marine Mammal Predation Marine mamm
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downstream of Bonneville Dam. Socke
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Oceanographic Features and Climatic
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coincides with relatively poor ocea
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from streams in watersheds with agr
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chemicals used has decreased (Table
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California, Idaho, Oregon, and Wash
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to disease, decrease the ability of
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characterized by emergent aquatic p
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subregions and accounting units for
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Region USGS Subregion Central Calif
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Table 31. Area of Land Use Categori
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Table 33. Land uses and population
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(Table 34). See species ESU/DPS map
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undeveloped sites in the Santa Ana
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and grazing. Dams and water diversi
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Artificial Propagation Anadromous f
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water resources is handled by Calif
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containers at time of use. • Cond
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Table 36. Area of land use categori
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Columbia River Basin The most notab
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Ranching practices have led to incr
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17% of mainstem Yakima River sample
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detected in samples from all sites,
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Whitney 1979). Similarly, over one
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nation’s silver output has come f
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(USBR 1998 in (FCRPS 2008); providi
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The States of Oregon and Wasington
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Columbia River chum salmon are not
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including brown and brook trout, At
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density residential with some agric
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Although urban areas occupy only 2%
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Habitat Modification Much of the re
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Table 42. Pollutants of Concern in
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the 1950s. The vast majority of the
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pugettensis). An NPDES permit is re
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Habitat loss through wetland fills
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afted and moved to market or downst
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Oregon is in the process of develop
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Effects of the Proposed Action The
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Carbaryl dissipates in the environm
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high water solubility, low Kow, and
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Table 46. Environmental fate charac
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Species General Life History Descri
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Table 48. Examples of registered us
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Table 49. PRZM-EXAMS exposure estim
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estimate do not represent the highe
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BE provides a peak EEC of 5.5 μg/L
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alcoves, channel edge sloughs, over
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Carbaryl can also be applied at 8 l
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habitat had a downwind width of 10
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Depth of aquatic habitat (meters) B
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monitored in California, Idaho, Ore
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5.2 μg/L for carbofuran, 0.0150 -
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Summary information for carbaryl, c
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after flooding (Nicosia, Carr et al
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pesticide concentrations in the dis
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flowing water habitats, it is not s
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egistered products that contain mor
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potential ingredients in tank mixtu
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low maximum application rate. Howev
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occupy shoreline habitats of only a
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vertebrates and invertebrates (Walk
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Temperature and toxicity We found n
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exposure concentrations. Moreover,
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Summary of Toxicity Information Pre
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at several times during an experime
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Table 64. Assessment endpoint toxic
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fish, number of eggs per mature fem
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varigatus), an estuarine species, b
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included a NOAEC of 9.8 μg/L and a
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730 μg/L for D. magna (freshwater
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TEP) are contained in Appendix D-1.
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the uncertainties related to experi
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capacity (Little and Finger 1990).
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consumed relative to unexposed fish
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24 hr exposure (Zinkl, Shea et al.
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We located studies that measured ol
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endpoints of salmonids remains a re
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items (Courtemanch and Gibbs 1980;
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single pulse of chlorpyrifos was in
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Table 65. Study designs and results
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Chemical Taxa/species Assessment me
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Chemical Taxa/species carbofuran ca
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Chemical Taxa/species carbofuran ca
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macroinvertebrate community did not
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Jardine, MacLatchy et al. 2005; Luo
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Risk Characterization In this secti
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survival appears to be the most sen
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factor in the degree of toxicity of
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Figure 41. Methomyl exposure concen
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Table 67. . Examples of published f
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Additionally, the macroinvertebrate
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Measured Concentrations in Willapa
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up to 100 m off the carbaryl applic
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average initial concentration from
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• Unrelated (0): Conclusive evide
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the fish to determine the cause of
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Dose-addition assumes the cumulativ
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Table 73. Predicted AChE inhibition
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habitats during aerial applications
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The second line of evidence is whet
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D. Impair swimming which leads to r
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F. Exposure to mixtures of carbaryl
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used surfactant/adjuvant mixed with
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In a second modeling exercise, we t
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Carbaryl’s thresholds for the fou
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Table 75. Modeled output for Stream
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Table 77. Modeled output for Sockey
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The likelihood of scenarios 2 and 3
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The three insecticides are highly t
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A. B. C. Figure 43. Probability plo
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elatively low survival EC50 values
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dominated by agricultural or urban
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Figure 45. Percent change in lambda
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Table 80. Multiple application scen
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Because olfaction plays an importan
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expect co-occurrence of the three i
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support one or more lifestages. For
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We attempted to compare expected co
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Cumulative Effects Cumulative effec
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entry into freshwater systems. Carb
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Integration and Synthesis The Integ
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carbofuran applications could cause
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The Status of Listed Resources and
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also exposed to poor water quality
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Given the life history of LCR Chino
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Chinook salmon. Furthermore, there
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all three a.i.s are expected to be
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completing migration to the Pacific
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The major threats to this ESU ident
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Land use data indicate that the Col
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Central California Coast Coho Salmo
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Pesticide use and detections in LCR
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effects. In several streams, one or
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ESU is evergreen forest. Between 19
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miles where agricultural crops are
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The Status of Listed Resources and
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carbofuran application to potatoes,
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The major threats to this DPS ident
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lowland areas (below 1,000 ft eleva
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consequences and subsequent populat
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and surface waters within the heavi
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1994). Most juvenile steelhead spen
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salmon, Northern California steelhe
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natural cover such as submerged and
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The precise change in the conservat
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coho salmon, LCR coho salmon, South
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Table 81. Jeopardy and Non-Jeopardy
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Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives
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The RPA is comprised of six require
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Table 83. Mandatory pesticide no ap
Page 511 and 512: items will die from these exposures
Page 513 and 514: action will attain this level in th
Page 515 and 516: proposed action. Therefore, inciden
Page 517 and 518: 1. Minimize the amount and extent o
Page 519 and 520: met within the next 15 years, then
Page 521 and 522: Arunachalam, S., K. Jeyalakshmi, et
Page 523 and 524: Bortleson, G. C. and J. C. Ebbert (
Page 525 and 526: CDFG (1995). "Letter dated 30 March
Page 527 and 528: Davies, P. E. and L. S. J. Cook (19
Page 529 and 530: FCRPS (2008). "Endangered Species A
Page 531 and 532: Haggerty, M. J., A. C. Ritchie, et
Page 533 and 534: IEPSPWT (1999). "Monitoring, assess
Page 535 and 536: government from 1896 to 1945." Repo
Page 537 and 538: Matthews, G. M. and R. S. Waples (1
Page 539 and 540: NMFS (2004). Five-year integrated p
Page 541 and 542: PSAT (2004). "State of the Sound 20
Page 543 and 544: Schroder, S. L. (1977). "Assessment
Page 545 and 546: Tufts, D. F. (1990). "Control of bu
Page 547 and 548: Williams, A. K. and C. R. Sova (196
Page 549 and 550: Introduction To assess the potentia
Page 551 and 552: ocean-type and stream-type Chinook
Page 553 and 554: incorporates empirical data when av
Page 555 and 556: given a percentile value of 50 (i.e
Page 557 and 558: species-appropriate growth period (
Page 559 and 560: For Figure 3C, an exposure pulse wo
Page 561: the n x n square matrix (A) by assi
Page 565 and 566: distributed survival and reproducti
Page 567 and 568: Figure 1: Life-History Graphs and T
Page 569 and 570: Table 1. List of values used for co
Page 571 and 572: Table 4. Matrix transition element
Page 573 and 574: Figure 2. 555
Page 575 and 576: Figure 4. 557
Page 577 and 578: Brewer, S.K., Little, E.E., DeLonay
Page 579 and 580: Higgs, D.A., MacDonald, J.S., Levin
Page 581 and 582: Morgan, M.J., and Kiceniuk, J.W. 19
Page 583 and 584: Scholz, N.L., Truelove, N.K., Frenc
Page 585 and 586: Appendix 2. Species and Population
Page 587 and 588: Chinook Salmon (continued) ESU Popu
Page 589 and 590: Chum Salmon ESU Population λ - H=0
Page 591 and 592: Coho Salmon (continued) ESU Populat
Page 593 and 594: Steelhead (continued) DPS Populatio
Page 595 and 596: Appendix 3: Abbreviations 7-DADMax
Page 597 and 598: FQPA Food Quality Protection Act ft
Page 599 and 600: PPE Personal Protection Equipment P
Page 601 and 602: Appendix 4: Glossary 303(d) waters
Page 603 and 604: Salmon fall to head upriver to its
Page 605 and 606: Main channel The stream channel tha
Page 607 and 608: Smolt A juvenile salmon or steelhea
Page 609: WQS “A water quality standard def
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